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Journal Article
House price differentials and dynamics: evidence from the Los Angeles and San Francisco metropolitan areas
This paper applies insights from economic theory to explain recent housing price patterns in California's two largest metropolitan areas. We pay particular attention to the role of migration between metropolitan areas in explaining overall housing price dynamics for a given metropolitan area, and we show how household mobility within a metropolitan area tends to attenuate price pressures in the most supply-constrained places. In reviewing various models' ability to explain California's house price patterns, we also provide some historical perspective on California's urban structure, ...
Journal Article
The demise of California reconsidered: interstate migration over the economic cycle
Recent years have witnessed widespread media attention and policy debate regarding the causes and consequences of population flight from California. While some analysts' reports link the reversal in California migration flows to cyclical swings in the state economy, other commentaries focus on alleged deterioration in California amenities and quality of life. This paper employs a logistic migration model to evaluate the role of economic and other location-specific effects in the determination of California domestic migration flows. The model is estimated using data for each of the 50 U.S. ...
Working Paper
Compensating differentials and evolution of the quality-of-life among U.S. states
This paper provides the first application of the compensating differential paradigm to the evaluation of the extent and sources of evolution in quality-of-life among U.S. states. In addition to providing estimates of quality-of-life rankings for U.S. states over the 1981-1990 period, we use estimated implicit prices on place-specific amenities to calculate the contributions of various factors to evolution in the quality-of-life. Our findings indicate that the quality-of-life rankings are relatively stable across model specifications and over time for certain poorly ranked, densely-populated ...
Working Paper
The causes and consequences of economic restructuring: evidence from the early 21st century
A number of industries underwent large and permanent reductions in employment growth at the beginning of this decade, a process we label as restructuring. We describe how restructuring occurred and what its consequences were for the economy. In particular, we find that restructuring stemmed largely from relative demand shocks (though technology shocks were important in some industries) and that elevated levels of permanent job destruction and permanent layoffs were distinguishing features of industries subject to restructuring. In addition, most workers displaced in restructuring industries ...
Working Paper
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in ...