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Report
The equilibrium real policy rate through the lens of standard growth models
Wang, J. Christina; Sichel, Daniel E. (2017-11-17)
The long-run equilibrium real policy rate is a key concept in monetary economics and an important input into monetary policy decision-making. It has gained particular prominence lately as the Federal Reserve continues to normalize monetary policy. In this study, we assess the evolution, current level, and prospective values of this equilibrium rate within the framework of standard growth models. Our analysis considers as a baseline the single-sector Solow model, but it places more emphasis on the multi-sector neoclassical growth model, which better fits the data over the past three decades. ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-6

Working Paper
Lease Expirations and CRE Property Performance
Glancy, David P.; Wang, J. Christina (2023-08-01)
This study analyzes how lease expirations affect the performance of commercial real estate (CRE) properties and how these patterns changed during the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, lease expirations were associated with a notable increase in the downside risk to a property’s occupancy or income, particularly in weaker property markets. These risks became more pronounced during the pandemic, driven mostly by office properties. During the pandemic, the adverse effect of lease expirations on office occupancy increased more than 50 percent overall, and it doubled for offices in ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-10

Working Paper
Vanishing procyclicality of productivity?: industry evidence
Wang, J. Christina (2014-12-31)
The robust performance of U.S. labor productivity (LP) early in the recovery from the Great Recession contrasts markedly with the sluggish growth of output, and even more with the lack of recovery in employment. This pattern has renewed interest in understanding why productivity has become much less procyclical in recent decades. This is an important topic because the cyclicality of productivity has implications for how we model business cycles, and our understanding of how they are propagated. The topic also has implications for monetary policy because it affects the trend-cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-15

Briefing
The impact of policy uncertainty on U. S. employment: industry evidence
Wang, J. Christina (2013)
The anemic pace of the recovery of the U. S. economy from the Great Recession has frequently been blamed on heightened uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation?s fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has different impacts on different industries, to the extent that industries differ in their exposure to government policies. This study utilizes industry data to explore whether policy uncertainty indeed affects the dynamics of employment, and particularly its impact on industry employment, during this recovery. This analysis focuses on heterogeneity ...
Public Policy Brief

Working Paper
Technological progress, the \"user cost of money,\" and the real output of banks
Basu, Susanto; Wang, J. Christina (2013-12-31)
Financial institutions provide their customers a variety of unpriced services and cover their costs through interest margins - the interest rates they receive on assets are generally higher than the rates they pay on liabilities. In particular, banks pay below-public-market interest rates on deposits while charging above-public-market rates on loans. Various authors have suggested that this situation allows one to measure the real quantity of financial services provided without explicit prices as proportional to the real stocks of financial assets held by households. We present a ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-21

Report
A Helping Hand to Main Street Where and When It Was Needed
Wang, J. Christina; Fillat, Jose; Bräuning, Falk; Lin, Frankie (2021-05-27)
This paper investigates the lending activity of the Main Street Lending Program, which the Federal Reserve established at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020. Main Street was the largest (by total principal outstanding) of the Federal Reserve's emergency credit and liquidity facilities. The authors find fairly robust evidence that Main Street accomplished its key goal of directing more funds where and when they were most needed. Businesses located in states with more severe declines in commercial activity (as proxied by mobility indicators) and higher infection rates obtained a ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Discussion Paper
Stablecoins and Crypto Shocks: An Update
Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; Azar, Pablo D.; Cipriani, Marco; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Huang, Catherine; Landoni, Mattia; La Spada, Gabriele; Macchiavelli, Marco; Malfroy-Camine, Antoine; Wang, J. Christina (2025-04-23)
Stablecoins are crypto assets whose value is pegged to that of a fiat currency, usually the U.S. dollar. In our first Liberty Street Economics post, we described the rapid growth of stablecoins, the different types of stablecoin arrangements, and the May 2022 run on TerraUSD, the fourth largest stablecoin at the time. In a subsequent post, we estimated the impact of large declines in the price of bitcoin on cumulative net flows into stablecoins and showed the existence of flight-to-safety dynamics similar to those observed in money market mutual funds during periods of stress. In this post, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250423

Working Paper
Productivity and economies of scale in the production of bank service value added
Wang, J. Christina (2003)
This paper uses a new measure of bank service output to estimate various specifications of production and cost functions for Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) over the period 1986 to 1999. The new output series is a true flow measure of bank service value added, and it follows from a unified model of bank operation that integrates risk and the measurement of bank services. The model also establishes separability between the production function of bank services and the funds borrowed and lent-a special intermediate input for banks. The preferred specification of the cost function estimates a large ...
Working Papers , Paper 03-7

Working Paper
Real output of bank services: what counts is what banks do, not what they own
Inklaar, Robert; Wang, J. Christina (2011)
The measurement of bank output, a difficult and contentious issue, has become even more important in the aftermath of the devastating financial crisis of recent years. In this paper, we argue that models of banks as processors of information and transactions imply a quantity measure of bank service output based on transaction counts instead of balances of loans and deposits. Compiling new and comparable output measures for the United States and a range of European countries, we show that our counts-based output series exhibit significantly different growth patterns from those of our ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-1

Discussion Paper
TIPS scorecard: are TIPS accomplishing what they were supposed to accomplish?: can they be improved?
Wang, J. Christina; Triest, Robert K.; Bodie, Zvi; Barnes, Michelle L. (2009)
In September 1997, the U.S. Treasury developed the TIPS market in order to achieve three important policy objectives: (1) to provide consumers with a class of assets that allows for hedging against real interest rate risk, (2) to provide holders of nominal contracts a means of hedging against inflation risk, and (3) to provide everyone with a reliable indicator of the term structure of expected inflation. This paper evaluates progress toward the achievement of these objectives and analyzes prospective ways to better meet these objectives in the future, by, for example, extending the maturity ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 09-8

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