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Working Paper
Entrepreneurship and the deregulation of banking: how strong is the evidence?
This paper presents evidence that banking deregulation led to decreases in entrepreneurship in some U.S. regions, and to increases in others. This is contrary to recent research that found an unambiguous positive relationship.
Journal Article
The gender wage gap and wage discrimination: illusion or reality?
The wage gap between men and women is not as large as you think, nor is it entirely due to discrimination.
Journal Article
Help wanted
Journal Article
A new picture of metro-area employment in the Eighth District
Journal Article
Globalization and the states
Working Paper
U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment
Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lockstep and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, this means that the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: an increase in vacancies ...
Journal Article
Regional business cycle phases in Japan
This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for the period 1976-2005. An early-1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.
Journal Article
Price stability and the rising tide: how low inflation lifts all ships
The low and stable inflation that the Fed has relentlessly pursued over the past decade or so has buoyed virtually all demographic groups, enabling most Americans to do a lot more than just keep their heads above water.
Journal Article
Walking a tightrope into 2008
Working Paper
Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy
Using a regional VAR, we find large differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks across regions of the United States. We also find that the region-level effects of monetary policy differ a great deal between the pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods in terms of their depth and length. The two sample periods also yield very different rankings of the regions in terms of the effects of monetary policy. Our regional VAR also suggests that aggregate VARs that ignore regional variations can suffer from severe aggregation bias. We use the results of our regional VAR to find evidence that ...