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Discussion Paper
Firms and Artificial Intelligence: A Regional Update
Similar to past technological developments, the productivity implications, labor market implications, and thus economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will evolve over time. A lot depends on who is using AI tools, when they are using them, and how they are using them.In the Richmond Fed's December business surveys — which were fielded between Dec. 1 and Dec. 17 — we asked firms if they have adopted AI and if so, how they were using it. Businesses reported that they were increasingly providing employees with access to AI tools to complete tasks but were less likely to have ...
Discussion Paper
What Might Cuts in Federal Government Spending Mean for the Fifth District?
In a previous post, we examined the concentration of the federal government workforce in the Fifth Federal Reserve District — a region that includes the government-concentrated District of Columbia and surrounding areas in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. However, workforce concentration is just one aspect of federal government spending in our district. Virginia and Maryland, for example, have consistently been among the top recipients of federal contract dollars. To understand the extent to which the Fifth District relies on the federal government requires examining not only the ...
Discussion Paper
COVID-19: Unemployment Claims and Unemployment in Virginia
Over the course of three weeks (from March 15 to April 4), more than 360,000 Virginians filed for unemployment. What does this mean for other employment measures and where might we see Virginia's unemployment rate go?
Discussion Paper
Demand Is Up, But Can Supply Match It?
Journal Article
The Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force
Economic Trends Across the Region looks at the Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force.
Journal Article
District Digest: Early Childhood Education in the Fifth District: The Challenges and the Opportunities
Quality, affordable early care and education (ECE) serves a dual purpose. First, quality child care enables parents, particularly mothers, to work outside the home — an option that may be important both to families and, in a tight labor market, to the economy as a whole. Second, research shows that early education and a high-quality environment contribute to a child's success in kindergarten, which is a predictor of future achievement in school and ultimately in the workforce. Still, most parents in the U.S. struggle to find quality ECE at an affordable price — a challenge that spans the ...
Discussion Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fifth District Economy
As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?
Discussion Paper
The End of a Volatile Year: What Have Firms Told Us?
Briefing
Are Firms Factoring Increasing Inflation Into Their Prices?
While inflation is low and stable, business leaders are well justified in paying little attention to aggregate inflation measures when making their own pricing decisions. In this article, we introduce a new set of quarterly questions in a business survey that help to ascertain the extent to which firms pay more attention to inflation measures as inflation rises. We find that, from July 2021 to January 2022, business leaders not only report paying more attention to aggregate inflation measures, but also report incorporating those measures into their own pricing decisions.
Briefing
Tariffs: Estimating the Economic Impact of the 2025 Measures and Proposals
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on imported goods, typically calculated as a percentage of the import's value (known as an ad valorem tax). Governments use tariffs for various purposes, such as raising revenue, protecting domestic industries from foreign competition and influencing international trade patterns. By increasing the cost of imported products, tariffs encourage consumers to shift toward domestically produced goods, thus supporting local businesses and potentially stimulating domestic economic activity.However, the overall impact of tariffs depends critically on how much ...