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Journal Article
District digest: Economic trends across the region
Related Link:> https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2013/q1/ef_q1_districtchart.jpg
Discussion Paper
The Future Is…Remote?
Briefing
Tariffs: Estimating the Economic Impact of the 2025 Measures and Proposals
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on imported goods, typically calculated as a percentage of the import's value (known as an ad valorem tax). Governments use tariffs for various purposes, such as raising revenue, protecting domestic industries from foreign competition and influencing international trade patterns. By increasing the cost of imported products, tariffs encourage consumers to shift toward domestically produced goods, thus supporting local businesses and potentially stimulating domestic economic activity.However, the overall impact of tariffs depends critically on how much ...
Journal Article
State and Metro Data, 3Q:14
Briefing
Tariff Update: Incorporating the April 9 Announcements
This article updates our previous analysis covering the potential effects of announced tariffs by the U.S. As the analysis is quite similar to our previous analysis, much of the text of the article is drawn from the previous article.In our April 2 article examining recent tariff announcements, we constructed a benchmark measure of the average effective tariff rate (AETR) based on detailed trade data for 2024. The analysis quantified the fiscal and trade effects of newly proposed tariffs through a series of counterfactual scenarios. These included tariffs on aluminum and steel, renewed duties ...
Journal Article
Employment Barriers in the Rural Fifth District
In Virginia, 75 percent of working-age adults are employed, in line with the national average of 74 percent. But there are significant disparities across geographies. In Loudoun County, Va., in the Washington, D.C., metro area, the share is 84.1 percent. On the other side of the state, in Lee County, just 48.2 percent of working-age adults are employed. This is true of many socioeconomic indicators: Aggregation is necessary to understand broad outcomes, but with aggregation, we lose important geographic distinctions and, thus, the opportunity to identify both challenges and solutions. This is ...
Journal Article
District Digest: Preparing to Work: The Demand for Postsecondary Education and How It's Changing
Starting around a decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, and more acutely during the pandemic itself, postsecondary enrollment declined — most notably among community colleges, both in the Fifth District and in the United States as a whole. Yet the 2023-2024 academic year saw a shift in that trend as enrollment grew once again. What's going on?The unsatisfying answer is that there are conflicting forces at work, and it's hard to tell which will prevail. But one thing is clear: Combined with the anticipated decline in the college-age population, high costs of four-year degrees, and changing ...
Briefing
Why Use a Diffusion Index?
Diffusion indexes are a useful way to summarize economic information from surveys because they are easy to understand and correlate well with economic activity over time. To use diffusion indexes most effectively as a measure of change, however, it is important that the extensive margin of the indicator in question explains more of the change in that indicator than the intensive margin. This article, and the papers described in it, can also be used to develop a confidence interval around any diffusion index.
Discussion Paper
The End of a Volatile Year: What Have Firms Told Us?
Journal Article
Predicting Economic Activity through Richmond Fed Surveys