Search Results
Discussion Paper
Some partial equilibrium of tax reform on corporate policy
Working Paper
Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty
In his 1999 monograph The Conquest of American Inflation Tom Sargent describes how a policymaker, who applies a constant-gain algorithm in estimating the Phillips curve, can fall into the grip of an induction problem: concluding on the basis of reduced-form evidence that the trade-off between inflation and output is more favorable than it actually is. This results in oscillations between periods of disinflation and reflation. The problem arises because the policymaker is naive about possible misspecification, her role in creating that misspecification, and its role in policy design. In ...
Working Paper
The effect of past and future economic fundamentals on spending and pricing behavior in the FRB/US macroeconomic model
This paper derives and presents mean leads and lags as well as patterns of relative importance weights implied by the PAC (polynomial-adjustment-cost) error-correction equations which form the core of the FRB/US model at the Federal Reserve Board. Relative importance weights measure the contributions of past and future expected changes in fundamentals on current decisions. These and the associated mean lags and leads can be considered summary measures of key dynamic properties of FRB/US. The spending equations are those for total consumption, durables consumption, business equipment, ...
Working Paper
Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?
This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. We focus on two types of uncertainty: (i) unstructured model uncertainty reflected in additive shock error processes that result from omitted-variable misspecifications, and (ii) structured model uncertainty, where one or more parameters are identified as the source of misspecification. For an estimated forward-looking model of the U.S. economy, we find that rules that are robust against ...
Discussion Paper
Monopolistic competition and sequential search
Discussion Paper
Forecasting money demand with econometric models
Discussion Paper
On the rationality of discontinuous monetary policy
Working Paper
Predicting inflation with commodity prices
Working Paper
Avoiding Nash Inflation : Bayesian and Robust Responses to Model Uncertainty
We examine learning, model misspecification, and robust policy responses to misspecification in a quasi-real-time environment. The laboratory for the analysis is the Sargent (1999) explanation for the origins of inflation in the 1970s and the subsequent disinflation. Three robust policy rules are derived that differ according to the extent that misspecification is taken as a parametric phenomenon. These responses to drifting estimated parameters and apparent misspecification are compared to the certainty-equivalent case studied by Sargent. We find gains from utilizing robust approaches to ...