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Author:Villar Vallenas, Daniel 

Working Paper
Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff's Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019
Peneva, Ekaterina V.; Rudd, Jeremy B.; Villar Vallenas, Daniel (2025-08-22)
This paper examines the Board staff's inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and lessons learned along the way. The staff significantly underestimated both the size and persistence of the inflationary surge that followed the reopening of the U.S. economy. As a result, staff members made various changes to their forecasting procedures, including using new types of data to inform their assessment of supply-demand imbalances in product and labor markets and to guide their judgmental forecast. Throughout, an ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-069

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