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Journal Article
A Growth-Augmented Phillips Curve
Empirical studies find that the link between inflation and economic slack has weakened in recent decades, a development that could hamper monetary policymakers as they aim to achieve their inflation objective. We show that while the role of economic slack has diminished, economic growth has become a significant driver of inflation dynamics, indicating that the link between inflation and economic activity remains but the relevant gauge of activity has changed. The new evidence suggests that the COVID-19-related recession could induce substantial disinflationary pressure.
Journal Article
Why Has Durable Goods Spending Been So Strong during the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Consumers increased their purchases of durable goods notably during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic may have lifted the demand for durable goods directly, by shifting consumer preferences away from services toward a variety of durable goods. It may also have stimulated spending on durable goods indirectly, by prompting a strong fiscal policy response that raised disposable income. We estimate the historical relationship between durable goods spending and income and find that income gains in 2020 accounted for about half of the increase in durable goods spending, indicating that the direct ...
Journal Article
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to a Contraction in Labor Supply?
Conventional wisdom holds that a central bank should tighten monetary policy after a surprise decline in labor supply to offset the inflationary effects of the decline. However, this policy prescription comes from models of monetary policy that abstract from labor force participation. We examine the policy implications of worker entry into and exit from the labor force. We find that cyclical changes in labor force participation call for a less restrictive policy response to a decline in labor supply. The less restrictive policy response is appropriate because policy tightening reduces the ...
Journal Article
Postpandemic Nominal Wage Growth: Inflation Pass-Through or Labor Market Imbalance?
Measures of wage growth have increased substantially during and after the pandemic compared to their average levels in the decade before. Does higher wage growth reflect compensation for a higher cost of living, brought about by an increase in inflation in the past two years? Or has an imbalance between strong labor demand and restrained labor supply lifted wage growth? Using a new empirical wage Phillips curve model, we find that the increase in wage growth largely reflects the pass-through of higher inflation and does not reflect labor market imbalances. The model forecasts a decline in ...
Working Paper
Firm Size, Heterogeneous Strategic Complementarities, and Real Rigidity
Recent research finds that only large firms exhibit strategic complementarities in price setting. Using firm survey data, we show that cost pass-through decreases significantly with firm size. To examine the implications for inflation dynamics, we develop a DSGE model that features heterogeneous complementarities across firm size. While standard DSGE models with homogeneous firms generate real rigidity in relative prices, such rigidity is much weaker in our model. Large firms that exhibit complementarities align their prices with those of small firms that more fully pass through costs. Our ...
Working Paper
Firm Size, Heterogeneous Strategic Complementarities, and Real Rigidity
Recent research indicates substantial differences in price-setting behavior between small and large firms, as only large firms exhibit strategic complementarities in price setting. Using firm survey data, we present new evidence that the cost-price pass-through decreases with firm size. To examine the implications for inflation dynamics, we develop a DSGE model that features heterogeneous complementarities across firm size. While standard DSGE models with homogeneous firms generate real rigidity in relative prices, there is little such rigidity in our model. Heterogeneity in strategic ...
Working Paper
Monopsonistic Wage-setting and Monetary Policy
Research in labor economics has documented evidence of labor market monopsony. Nevertheless, macroeconomic studies routinely consider households' wage-setting under monopolistic competition. We introduce firms' wage-setting under monopsonistic competition in an otherwise standard sticky-price model. This substantially alters the implications for wage dynamics, welfare, and policy. Compared to its counterpart model with monopolistic wage-setting, our model indicates that the wage Phillips curve includes the wage markdown as its main driver and has a steeper slope generated by strategic ...
Working Paper
Fixing the Phillips Curve: Implications of Firms' Monopsonistic Wage-setting for Inflation Dynamics
Motivated by evidence documented in labor economics, we introduce firms' monopsonistic wage-setting in an otherwise standard DSGE model. Our model identifies shocks to the wage markdown as labor demand shocks—a feature absent from standard models. With both labor demand and supply shocks, our model empirically outperforms its standard counterpart model. Firms' monopsonistic wage-setting allows real unit labor cost to be decomposed into not only real marginal cost but also the wage markdown. This refined measure of real marginal cost enhances the Phillips curve's ability to describe ...
Working Paper
A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence
We propose a novel theory of intrinsic inflation persistence by introducing trend inflation and variable elasticity of demand in a model with staggered price and wage setting. Under nonzero trend inflation, the variable elasticity generates intrinsic persistence in inflation through a measure of price dispersion stemming from staggered price setting. It also introduces intrinsic persistence in wage inflation under staggered wage setting, which affects price inflation. With the theory we show that inflation exhibits a persistent, hump-shaped response to a monetary policy shock. We also show ...
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited
A large literature has established that the Fed? change from a passive to an active policy response to inflation led to US macroeconomic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s. This paper revisits the literature?s view by estimating a generalized New Keynesian model using a full-information Bayesian method that allows for equilibrium indeterminacy and adopts a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. The model empirically outperforms canonical New Keynesian models that confirm the literature?s view. Our estimated model shows an active policy response to inflation even during the Great ...