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Working Paper
Can self-help groups really be self-help?
This paper examines a cost-reducing innovation to the delivery of "Self-Help Group" microfinance services. These groups typically rely on outside agents to found and administer the groups although funds are raised by the group members. The innovation is to have the agents earn their payment by charging membership fees rather than following the status quo in which the agents are paid by an outside organization and instead offer free services to clients. The theory we develop shows that such member- ship fees could actually improve performance without sacrificing membership, simply by ...
Discussion Paper
Is China Really Growing at 5 Percent?
Chinese authorities recently announced a growth target of "around 5 percent" for 2025, the same as their 2024 target. Five percent is about half the pace of growth that China sustained from the 1980s to the early 2010s, but it is nonetheless quite high for an economy flirting with deflation and mired in a years-long property bust.
Working Paper
Can Self-Help Groups Really Be 'Self-Help'?
We provide an experimental and theoretical evaluation of a cost-reducing innovation in the delivery of "self-help group" microfinance services, in which privatized agents earn payments through membership fees for providing services. Under the status quo, agents are paid by an outside donor and offer members free services. In our multi-country randomized control trial we evaluate the change in this incentive scheme on agent behavior and performance, and on overall village-level outcomes. We find that privatized agents start groups, attract members, mobilize savings, and intermediate loans at ...
Discussion Paper
The Effect of US-China Tariff Hikes: Differences in Demand Composition Matter
In this note, we estimate the economic effects of the increases in tariffs between China and the USA since the beginning of 2018, taking into account the investment channel. As of the bilateral Phase One agreement in early 2020, the United States has raised tariffs on about $335 billion of Chinese goods and China has raised tariffs on about $120 billion of US goods.
Discussion Paper
Economic Resilience in the COVID-19 Pandemic
The global spread of COVID-19 virus in early 2020, and the measures taken to contain it pushed the global economy into a deep contraction. As illustrated in Figure 1, global GDP fell 10.5 percent below its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of 2020.
Discussion Paper
Mexico in U.S. Supply Chains: Lessons from 2018-19 Tariffs
In the wake of the 2018–19 U.S.-China tariff hikes, there has been a significant shift in U.S. supply chains, with Mexico emerging as the largest supplier of U.S. imports, surpassing China. This shift has been attributed in part to Mexico gaining a cost advantage over China following the U.S tariffs on China.