Search Results
Journal Article
Opportunity knocks: improved matching of jobs and workers
Tzemen and Willis illustrate that over the past year, workers found jobs more closely matched to their educational attainment.
Working Paper
Under-investment in state capacity: the role of inequality and political instability
Existing studies have shown that the state's ability to tax, also known as fiscal capacity, is positively related to economic development. In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the government's decision to invest in state capacity, which involves a trade-off between present consumption and the ability to collect more taxes in the future. Using a model, we highlight some political and economic dimensions of this decision and conclude that political stability, democracy, income inequality, as well as the valuation of public goods relative to private goods, are important variables to ...
Working Paper
Health-care reform or labor market reform? A quantitative analysis of the affordable care act
An equilibrium model with firm and worker heterogeneity is constructed to analyze labor market and welfare implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, commonly called the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The authors? model implies a significant reduction in the uninsured rate from 22.6 percent to 5.6 percent. The model predicts a moderate positive welfare gain from the ACA because of the redistribution of income through health insurance subsidies at the exchange as well as the Medicaid expansion. About 2.1 million more part-time jobs are created under the ACA at the expense of ...
Journal Article
Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
Troy Davig, Nida Cakir Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tuzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Journal Article
How Many Workers Are Truly “Missing” from the Labor Force?
As of March 2022, the U.S. labor force participation rate remained one percentage point below its pre-pandemic level. After accounting for the effects of slower population growth and the aging of thepopulation in the past two years, I estimate that around 2 million workers are missing from the laborforce. Individuals age 65 and older, whose participation rates remain persistently below pre-pandemiclevels, constitute most of the missing labor force.
Working Paper
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
We estimate the impact of minimum-wage increases on the quantity of labor demanded as measured by firms’ vacancy postings. We use propriety, county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online database. Our identification relies on the disproportionate effects of minimum-wage hikes on different occupations, as the wage distribution around the binding minimum wage differs by occupation. We find that minimum-wage increases during the 2005-2018 period have led to substantial declines in vacancy postings in at-risk occupations, occupations with a larger share of ...
Working Paper
Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States
I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994-2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and currently stands at 4.5 percent. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
Journal Article
Evaluating a year of oil price volatility
Troy Davig, Nida ak?r Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Journal Article
A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
The author presented a new estimate of the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Based on this new estimate, the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.4 percentage point since 1994 and is currently 4.6 percent. Ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
Journal Article
Foreign-Born Women Have Driven the Recent Increase in Prime-Age Women in the Labor Force
The labor force participation rate of prime-age (25 to 54) women declined dramatically during the pandemic-led recession but has since recovered to an all-time high. We examine how different groups have contributed to this rebound and find that foreign-born women, particularly those with a bachelor’s degree, account for most of the increase in the number of prime-age women in the labor force. Immigration, in turn, fueled the increase in the number of foreign-born women in the labor force.