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Working Paper
The role of economic, fiscal, and financial shocks in the evolution of public sector pension funding
Many studies have documented the pervasive underfunding of public sector pension plans in the United States in recent years. The deterioration of the funded status of public pension plans coincided with severe fiscal crises that state and local governments experienced in the 2000s. This development has led to a suspicion that state and local governments have decreased employer pension contributions as a backdoor means of running fiscal deficits. In this paper, the authors investigate the extent to which this phenomenon has occurred. They estimate panel data regressions using the Boston ...
Conference Paper
Job reallocation and the business cycle: new facts for an old debate
Journal Article
The evolution of regional manufacturing employment: gross job flows within and between firms and industries
The distribution of manufacturing employment across regions of the United States has changed tremendously over time. Shares of manufacturing employment in older, northern regions of the country have declined markedly relative to shares in the Sunbelt regions. But the shifting of manufacturing employment shares goes beyond the well known migration of population to the South and West. Manufacturing employment relative to population has also fallen in northern regions, and even the absolute number of manufacturing jobs has declined in these areas as well. ; Anecdotal evidence suggests that some ...
Discussion Paper
A new approach to raising Social Security’s earliest eligibility age
While Social Security?s Normal Retirement Age (NRA) is increasing to 67, the Earliest Eligibility Age (EEA) remains at 62. Similar plans to increase the EEA raise concerns that they would create excessive hardship on workers who are worn-out or in bad health. One simple rule to increase the EEA is to tie an increase to the number of quarters of covered earnings. Such a provision would allow those with long work lives?presumably the less educated and lower paid?to quit earlier. We provide evidence that this simple rule would not satisfy the goal of preventing undue hardship on certain workers. ...
Conference Paper
The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets
According to the U. S. Census Bureau projections, the United States will face dramatic demographic changes over the next one hundred years. Indeed, the country will be entering largely uncharted territory. In the twenty-first century, the population is expected to grow more slowly than ever before over an extended period. The population will also age rapidly, with the share of the population over 65 climbing to a succession of new record highs. Finally, the United States will once again become a nation of immigrants. Over the past decade, the wave of new immigrants has already neared ...
Journal Article
The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets
According to U.S. Census Bureau projections, the United States will face dramatic demographic changes over the next one hundred years. The population is expected to grow more slowly but age more rapidly, with the share of the population over 65 climbing to a succession of new record highs. Additionally, the United States will once again become a nation of immigrants. Well over half of the increase in the U.S. population will be caused by the inflow of new immigrants and their children. And because the source of the immigrant inflow has shifted from Europe to Latin America and Asia, this new ...
Journal Article
Regional differences in family poverty
Poverty rates vary considerably over regions, as do the demographic characteristics of the poor, but why the extent of poverty varies as much as it does across different regions of the country is not fully understood. This is an unfortunate gap in our knowledge, since it is difficult to analyze how recent changes in federal anti-poverty policy will affect the regional distribution of poverty without a better understanding of current regional differences in the poverty rate.> The main goal of this article is to shed some light on why poverty rates vary as much as they do in different areas. ...
Working Paper
A new approach to causality and economic growth.
This paper examines the issue of causality in cross-sectional empirical models of economic growth. Using an approach to determining causal structures based on tests for conditional independence in sets of variables, we uncover alternative causal structures that are consistent with the correlation pattern of the variables in the data. We use these methods to develop alternative causal empirical models of economic growth. One of our consistent findings is that we can rule out the possibility that equipment investment causes growth. Our search procedure leads naturally to a structural model with ...
Working Paper
The effect of foreclosure on Boston Public School student academic performance
Although the recent wave of mortgage foreclosures has clearly been accompanied by economic hardship, relatively little research has examined how foreclosures affect the academic performance of students. This paper investigates the relationship between mortgage foreclosures and the academic performance of students using a unique dataset that matches information on the standardized test scores and attendance of individual Boston Public School students with real estate records indicating whether the student lived at an address involved in foreclosure and whether that student's parent or guardian ...
Discussion Paper
An economic analysis of the 2010 proposed settlement between the Department of Justice and credit card networks
In 2010, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against the credit card networks American Express, MasterCard, and Visa for alleged antitrust violations. We evaluate the extent to which the recently proposed settlement between the DOJ and Visa and MasterCard (henceforth, "Proposed Settlement") is likely to achieve its central objective: "?to allow Merchants to attempt to influence the General Purpose [Credit] Card or Form of Payment Customers select by providing choices and information in a competitive market." In word and spirit, the Proposed Settlement represents a significant ...