Search Results
Journal Article
Money, credit, and M2
Journal Article
Downgrading M1
Journal Article
Signals from M1 and M2
Journal Article
Predicting when the economy will turn
Journal Article
Technological change
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the conference "Technological Change," held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on November 14-15, 2002, under the joint sponsorship of the Bank and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. The papers are listed at the end and are available online http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0211/index.html
Working Paper
New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment
We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors?real GDP changes (?Okun?s Law?), monetary and fiscal policies, and the uncertainty effects emphasized by Bloom (2009). Structural factors, which we measure using the dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the ...
Journal Article
Has the Fed gotten tougher on inflation?
Journal Article
Unanchored expectations? Interpreting the evidence from inflation surveys
This Economic Letter uses two surveys of inflation expectations, one based on household respondents and the other on professional forecasters, to examine whether there has been a change in the way households and firms perceive the inflation process.
Journal Article
What does unemployment tell us about future inflation?