Search Results
Discussion Paper
Trade in Goods and Services: Measuring Domestic and Export Flows in Buyer-Supplier Data
This note explores measures of domestic and export flows based upon the Compustat customer segment data and compares our measures with official statistics.
Discussion Paper
From Income to Consumption Inequality? Looking through the Lens of Motor Vehicle Purchases
In this note, we assess the pattern of consumption inequality using an alternative data source--namely, new motor vehicle purchases.
Working Paper
Welfare Evaluation in a Heterogeneous Agent Model: How Representative is the CES Representative Consumer?
The present paper investigates the impact of asymmetric price changes on welfare in a model with heterogeneous consumers. I consider consumer heterogeneity a la Anderson et al. (1992). The standard welfare equivalence between the CES representative consumer and the discrete choice model breaks down in presence of asymmetric price changes. In fact, asymmetric variation in prices produce differential gains among heterogeneous consumers. I show that there exists no feasible Kaldor-Hicks income transfer such that the gains are equally redistributed. Intuitively, in presence of decreasing marginal ...
Working Paper
In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles
This paper explores the impact of two fiscal programs, the Economic Impact Payments and the Paycheck Protection Program, on vehicle purchases and relates our findings to post-pandemic price pressures. We find that receiving a stimulus check increased the probability of purchasing new vehicles. In addition, the disbursement of funds from the Paycheck Protection Program was associated with a rise in local new car registrations. Our estimates indicate that these two programs account for a boost of 1 3/4 million units -- or 12 percent -- to new car sales in 2020. Furthermore, the induced boost in ...
Discussion Paper
Measuring Firm-Level Uncertainty
Ample empirical research documents the negative effect of uncertainty on economic activity. Unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions or doubts about the direction of future policy tend to be associated with lower capital investments, reduced hiring, and slower consumer spending. This article proposes an alternative and more general time-varying measure of firm-level uncertainty, the ex post forecast error.
Discussion Paper
Help Wanted : Evaluating Labor Shortages in Manufacturing
In this note, we examine the extent of labor shortages for the manufacturing sector.
Discussion Paper
Unraveling the Oil Conundrum : Productivity Improvements and Cost Declines in the U.S. Shale Oil Industry
Why have large declines in oil prices and in the rig count not triggered a more dramatic decline in production? At what price level would a large share of U.S. shale oil production lose economic viability? In this note, we explore these questions with a focus on the U.S. shale oil industry in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian Basin regions.
Working Paper
Looking Inside the Magic 8 Ball : An Analysis of Sales Forecasts using Italian Firm-Level Data
This paper explores firm forecasting strategies. Using Italian data, we focus on two aspects of the forecasting process: how firms forecast sales and how accurate their predictions are. We relate both outcomes to current conditions, firm experience, global factors, and other firm characteristics. We find that current conditions tend to explain most of the variability in the sales forecast. While past projection errors tend to account for cross-firm differences in models of expectation formation, they are a key explanatory variable in models of forecast accuracy. Among other controls, firm ...
Working Paper
The Vaccine Boost: Quantifying the Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout on Measures of Activity
This paper investigates the impact of vaccine administration on three main dimensions of activity: spending, mobility, and employment. Our investigation combines two parts. First, we exploit the variation in vaccine administration across states. In panel regressions that include a large set of controls, we find that the rollout has a significant impact on spending, while the results on mobility and employment are mixed. Second, to address concerns of endogeneity, we look at the impact of vaccine lotteries on spending. Using a dynamic event design setting, we find that lotteries have ...