Recent College Grads Bear Brunt of Labor Market Shifts
Ozkan, Serdar; Sullivan, Nicholas (2025-08-25)
This year, young college graduates between ages 23 and 27 are experiencing jobless rates that are notably higher than the rates seen before the pandemic.
On the Economy

Understanding the “Swoosh”-Shaped Yield Curve for Treasuries
Kozlowski, Julian; Sullivan, Nicholas (2025-10-09)
An analysis of the yield curve for Treasuries suggests that while the market sees a gradual decline in short-term interest rates, it also expects rates to rise in the long run.
On the Economy

Is AI Contributing to Rising Unemployment? Evidence from Occupational Variation
Ozkan, Serdar; Sullivan, Nicholas (2025-08-26)
Is AI driving job displacement? This analysis compares jobs’ theoretical AI exposure and actual AI adoption with changes in occupation-level unemployment.
On the Economy

Are U.S. Treasuries Still “Convenient”?
Kozlowski, Julian; Sullivan, Nicholas (2025-10-14)
The convenience yield reflects the value that investors place on the liquidity and safety of U.S. Treasuries. Three different measures indicate this yield has fallen in recent years.
On the Economy

How Does Immigration Shape Average Labor Productivity? Evidence from the CPS
Ozkan, Serdar; Sullivan, Nicholas (2026-03-31)
An analysis suggests changes in workforce composition—particularly foreign-born employment share—have had little effect on U.S. productivity growth since 2023.
On the Economy