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Journal Article
What monetary regime for post-war Iraq?
Spiegel, Mark M. (2003)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Do local bond markets help fight inflation?
Spiegel, Mark M.; Rose, Andrew K. (2016)
Domestic bond markets allow governments to inflate away their debt obligations. However, they also may create a group of bond holders with the influence and desire to demand lower stable inflation. These competing interests suggest the net impact of creating a local currency bond market on inflation is ambiguous. Recent research finds that the creation of such markets in countries with an inflation target does reduce inflation: Countries with bond markets experience inflation approximately 3 percentage points lower than those without.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts
Spiegel, Mark M. (1998)
This paper conducts a case study of the impact of the May 6, 1997, announcement of enhanced independence of the Bank of England on estimates of expected future inflation and real interest rates. These are generated from observed yields on conventional and index-linked British gilts. For the longest-term bonds in the study, we find a 34 and 60 bases point decline in expected average future inflation over the life of the bond for one-day and two-week event windows, respectively. These results support the contention that institutional changes alone do affect agents' inflationary expectations.
Economic Review

Working Paper
Determinants of long-run labor productivity growth: a selective survey with some new empirical results
Spiegel, Mark M. (1994)
Using cross-country data, we review the empirical evidence concerning long-term labor and total factor productivity growth. We find that the conclusions one can draw from cross-country data are surprisingly modest. Nevertheless, we confirm the crucial role for physical capital accumulation in enhancing labor productivity growth and develop a role for human capital in an endogenous growth framework. We also find that the performances of so-called "ancillary variables" are rather insignificant in the presence of proxies for physical and human capital stocks.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-17

Journal Article
The costs of managing speculative capital inflows in the Pacific Basin
Kletzer, Kenneth M.; Spiegel, Mark M. (1997)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Targeted Reserve Requirements for Macroeconomic Stabilization
Liu, Zheng; Spiegel, Mark M.; Zhang, Jingyi (2023-11-22)
We study the effectiveness of targeted reserve requirements (RR) as a policy tool for macroeconomic stabilization. Targeted RR adjustments were implemented in China during both the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a model in which firms with idiosyncratic productivity can borrow from two types of banks—local and national—to finance working capital. National banks provide better liquidity services, while local banks have superior monitoring technologies. Switching lenders incurs a fixed cost, such that firms switch lenders only under sufficiently ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-13

Journal Article
Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia
Spiegel, Mark M. (1995)
This paper develops an open-economy version of the Bernanke-Blinder model which indicates that sterilization efforts through increases in reserve requirements will have limited impact if viable financial alternatives to the commercial banking sector exist. I then examine the capital inflow surge experiences of seven developing Asian nations. Our analysis yields three stylized conclusions: First, the timing of capital inflow surges indicates a causal role for both domestic and foreign factors. Second, there is little general rule as to the most effective sterilization instrument. Finally, ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
External imbalances and adjustment in the Pacific Basin: conference summary
Glick, Reuven; Spiegel, Mark M. (2006)
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the conference on "External Imbalances and Adjustment in the Pacific Basin" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on September 22-23, 2005, under the sponsorship of the Bank's Center for Pacific Basin Studies.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Small Business Lending and the Paycheck Protection Program
Mueller, Jack; Spiegel, Mark M. (2023-04-10)
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the PPP Liquidity Facility were launched early in the pandemic to help many small businesses survive. These programs encouraged banks to lend more extensively to small businesses over the first half of 2020. Since then, however, banks have reduced their exposure to these loans, leaving no significant changes in small business lending associated with participation in these programs over the three-year period from 2020 through 2022. This raises some doubt that emergency lending programs encourage long-term relationships that outlast the programs.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Chang, Chun; Liu, Zheng (2013)
We examine optimal monetary policy under prevailing Chinese policies> ? including capital controls, nominal exchange rate targets, and costly sterilization of foreign capital inflows. China?s combination of capital controls and exchange rate pegs disrupts its monetary policy, precluding adjustments that could maintain macroeconomic stability following a set of shocks that mirror its experience during the global financial crisis. However, comparing different policy regimes in a consistent DSGE framework, we find that the bulk of welfare gains achieved under full liberalization can be obtained ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-13

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