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Journal Article
Quality spreads in the bond market
Journal Article
Gamblers fallacy?
Journal Article
Is the current account deficit weighing on the dollar?
Working Paper
Conjectural guarantees loom large: evidence from the stock returns of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) with publicly traded equity. Although these companies hold government issued charters, their securities are not legally backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Yet, investors and rating agencies seem to believe that the U.S. Government would "bail out" Fannie or Freddie if they became distressed. We provide evidence of a conjectural guarantee in GSE stock returns. Stock that contains an option on returning the shares at a given price to the issuer -- the government, in this case -- show ...
Working Paper
When for-profits and not-for-profits compete: theory and empirical evidence from retail banking
We model competition in local deposit markets between for-profit and not-for-profit financial institutions. For-profit retail banks may offer a superior bundle of financial services, but not-for-profit (occupational) credit unions enjoy sponsor subsidies that allow them to capture a share of the local market. The model predicts that greater participation in credit unions in a given county will be associated with higher levels of retail-bank concentration. We find empirical evidence of this association. The ability of credit unions to affect local banking market structure supports the ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy actions and the incentive to invest
The ability of monetary policy actions to affect the private sector's incentive to invest in fixed capital is hotly debated. Whereas a downward shift in the yield curve increases the present value of expected cash flows and should spur investment, lower short term interest rates make delay more desirable. These influences work against each other so the net effect of stimulative monetary policy actions could go either way. This article outlines a simple investment decision rule that captures both effects of changing interest rates. It also clarifies why monetary policy actions that shift the ...
Working Paper
Do productivity growth, budget deficits, and monetary policy actions affect real interest rates? evidence from macroeconomic announcement data
Real-business-cycle models suggest that an increase in the rate of productivity growth increases the real rate of interest. But economic theory is ambiguous when it comes to the effect of government budget deficits on the real rate of interest. Similarly, little is known about the effect of monetary policy actions on real long-term interest rates. We investigate these questions empirically, using macroeconomic announcement data. We find that the real long-term rate of interest responds positively to surprises in labor productivity growth. However, we do not reject the hypothesis that the real ...
Working Paper
Corporate governance, entrenched labor, and economic growth
The German system of codetermination contributes to the entrenchment of labor. We show in a two-period model of project choice that entrenched labor leads to underinvestment and overstaffing. We provide empirical evidence that German firms subject to codetermination with equal representation of workers on supervisory boards during 1989-93 were, on average, overstaffed. In addition, the fraction of employees in codetermined firms has decreased over time. The expanded reach of codetermination during the mid-1970s therefore may have contributed to the deterioration of German economic growth ...
Working Paper
Cracks in the facade: American economic and financial structures after the boom
The United States experienced a historic boom during the late 1990s and briefly into the new millennium, highlighted by rapid economic and productivity growth, surging corporate profitability, sustained business investment in many areas, including high technology and telecommunications, and a soaring stock market. Many observers concluded that a "new era" had arrived. Meanwhile, the prestige of the Federal Reserve rose along with faith in the U.S. economy and its stock market. Deflation of the great boom brings with it many unanswered questions. Was there ever really a "new era" in the ...
Working Paper
Mergers and acquisitions in Germany
National differences in corporate governance practices in Europe, such as board structures, shareholder structures, and labor participation rights, make it difficult to operate in the European cross-border mergers and acquisitions environment. Particularly thorny issues are "golden shares" and labor participation in corporate decision-making. The widespread use of golden shares among its European neighbors was critical for Germany in causing the collapse of the proposed takeover directive in the European parliament in July 2001. Another area in which the harmonization efforts of the ...