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Journal Article
District Households Buck the Trend to Pay Down Debt
Jiang, Helu; Sanchez, Juan M. (2016-07)
While at a national level households have decreased their debt substantially since the financial crisis, in the St. Louis Fed?s District household debt has remained constant. The evolution of house prices may be the key.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Journal Article
Europe may provide lessons on preventing mortgage defaults
Sanchez, Juan M.; Martinez, Leonardo; Hatchondo, Juan Carlos (2013-07)
During the last global recession, house prices fell in some European countries almost as much as in some U.S. states. However, mortgage defaults occurred at a much lower rate in Europe. The authors say the difference might be explained by two regulations that apply in Europe but are used on a limited or much less restrictive basis in the U.S.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2025-06-12)
Emerging economies have adopted fiscal and monetary rules to discipline government policy. We study the value and macroeconomic implications of rules and flexibility within a sovereign-default model that incorporates domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. Adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times yields welfare gains. Suspending rules can significantly influence policy, macroeconomic outcomes, and welfare during large, unforeseen crises. The gains from flexibility depend on how quickly policymakers are able to reimpose rules after the crisis.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Vulnerability to Infection and Death
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2020-04-02)
Although COVID-19 initially spread faster in areas with low financial distress, evidence suggests that infections may spread most rapidly in highly financially distressed areas moving forward.
On the Economy

Journal Article
An Elementary Model of VC Financing and Growth
Han, Pengfei; Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-01-20)
This article uses an endogenous growth model to study how the improvements in financing for innovative start-ups brought by venture capital (VC) affect firm innovation and growth. Partial equilibrium results show how lending contracts change as financing efficiency improves, while general equilibrium results show that better screening and development of projects by VC investors leads to higher aggregate productivity growth.
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 1 , Pages 66-73

Working Paper
Too big to cheat: Efficiency and Investment in Partnerships
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2013)
Private information may limit insurance possibilities when a few agents form a partnership to pool idiosyncratic risk. We show that these insurance possibilities can improve if the partnership's income depends on capital accumulation and production, because cheating distorts investment. As agents' weights in the partnership increase, they are more affected by the investment distortion, and their incentives to misreport under the full information allocation are reduced. In the long run, either one of the partners is driven to immiseration, or both partners' lifetime utilities are approximately ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-001

The Broad, Continuing Rise in U.S. Credit Card Debt Delinquency
Sanchez, Juan M.; Mori, Masataka (2024-05-14)
An analysis examines the continuing rise in U.S. credit card delinquency through the share of people late on their payments and the share of debt that’s past due.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Why is employment growth so low?
Sanchez, Juan M.; Thornton, Daniel L. (2011)
Anemic investment in residential and commercial real estate has been a significant factor contributing to slow growth in employment.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Natural Resources and Global Misallocation
Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sanchez, Juan M. (2015-07-07)
We explore the efficiency in the allocation of physical capital and human capital across countries. The observed marginal products can differ across countries because of differences in technology (i.e. production functions) and in distortions (i.e. differences in use of factors) across countries. To identify differences in technology, we use new data and propose a simple method to estimate output shares of natural resources, and thus adjust the estimated marginal products of physical and human capital. With a sample of 79 countries from 1970 to 2005, we find that the world has decidedly moved ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-13

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