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Journal Article
The Aggregate and Relative Economic Effects of Government Financed Health Care
Government‐financed health care expenditures, through Medicare and Medicaid, have grown from roughly 0% to over 7.6% of national personal income over the past 50 years. This paper investigates the stimulative effects of Medicare spending. Using an annual, state‐level panel, we regress state income growth on own‐state spending and spending in other states, instrumented by unanticipated shocks to aggregate Medicare spending, to estimate local and spillover effects. In our benchmark specification, the own‐spending multiplier equals 1.3 and the spillover multiplier equals 0.4. The total ...
Journal Article
Immigrants to the U.S.: Where They Are Coming from, and Where They Are Headed
Where do most of our immigrants come from? Which are the most popular and least popular states for settlement? These are not just trivia contest questions?the answers are important for those who make policy and budget decisions on the state and federal levels.
Working Paper
Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers
In this paper, we estimate the effect of defense spending on the U.S. macroeconomy since World War II. First, we construct a new panel dataset of state-level federal defense contracts. Second, we sum observations across states and, using the resulting time series, estimate the aggregate effect of defense spending on national income and employment via instrumental variables. Third, we estimate local multipliers using the state-level data, which measures the relative effect on economic activity due to relative differences in defense spending across states. Comparing the aggregate and local ...
Journal Article
Immigration Patterns in the District Differ in Some Ways from the Nation's
The percentage of foreign-born in the four major metro areas of the District is smaller than for the nation as a whole. However, some of the metro areas are showing faster growth in their Asian, African and Latin American populations than is the nation overall.
Journal Article
Government Spending Might Not Create Jobs Even during Recessions
A review of government spending over 120 years seems to show little, if any, impact on job creation. The result is the same whether the economy is in a recession or not.
Journal Article
Comparing Income, Education and Job Data for Immigrants vs. Those Born in U.S.
Find out how the two groups compare on the national level as a whole as well as in the states with the highest/lowest percentage of immigrants.
Working Paper
The Aggregate and Relative Economic Effects of Government Financed Health Care
Government-financed health care (GFHC) expenditures, through Medicare and Medicaid, have grown from roughly zero to over 7.6 percent of national personal income over the past 50 years. Recently, some analysts (e.g., the Council of Economics Advisers (2014)) have argued that an expansion of GFHC (in particular Medicaid) has large positive employment effects. Using quarterly data for 1978:Q2-2016:Q4, this paper estimates the impact of GFHC spending on prime-age employment using an instrumental variables strategy that exploits exogenous variation in Medicare spending. Our IV estimate of the ...