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Working Paper
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Tutino, Antonella (2024-09-25)
We examine shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes, and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends. Using a targeted search model, we analyze mate selection based on factors such as education, age, race, income, and skill. Intriguingly, despite the rise of online dating, preferences, mate choice, and overall sorting patterns showed negligible change from 2008 to 2021. However, a longer historical view from 1960 to 2020 reveals a trend toward preferences for similarity, particularly concerning income, education, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-023

The Type of Job Vacancy Matters When Reading the Beveridge Curve
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2024-10-17)
From our Timely Topics podcast series: St. Louis Fed economist Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría discusses her co-authored research on the Beveridge curve and what the indicator can tell us about a soft landing.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana (2025-04-11)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of Bretton Woods capital controls on global economic activity. It applies a three-region DSGE model of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) that measures capital controls using observed regional consumption growth differences. We find sizable controls during Bretton Woods that prevented ROW capital from flowing to the U.S., and which reduced U.S. welfare and raised ROW welfare. By preventing capital flight in developing economies, we find that Bretton Woods controls promoted the U.S. foreign policy objective of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Working Paper
Targeted Search in Matching Markets
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Tutino, Antonella; Cheremukhin, Anton (2013-08-23)
We propose a parsimonious matching model where a person's choice of whom to meet endogenizes the degree of randomness in matching. The analysis highlights the interaction between a productive motive, driven by the surplus attainable in a match, and a strategic motive, driven by reciprocity of interest of potential matches. We find that the interaction between these two motives differs with preferences?vertical versus horizontal?and that this interaction implies that preferences recovered using our model can look markedly different from those recovered using a model where the degree of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-35

Firms’ Wage-Setting Power: A New Take on Monopsony in the Labor Market
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2025-07-17)
Why do some firms seem to pay workers less than what their labor is worth? An economic model gives insights into how wage-setting power arises in modern labor markets.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Does the Pullback in the Bond Market Matter?
Arias, Maria A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2016)
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries might be crucial in keeping a cap on U.S. borrowing costs.
Economic Synopses , Issue 24 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
The Relationship between Oil and Equities at the Zero Lower Bound
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Reinbold, Brian (2018)
Economists have observed that the correlation between oil price changes and equity returns changed dramatically after 2008. Before 2008, oil and equity prices were generally uncorrelated, while after 2008 they became highly correlated.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 1

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2023-09-13)
This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Dollar-Denominated Public Debt in Asia and Latin America
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Grittayaphong, Praew (2021-08-03)
Some countries have high levels of dollar-denominated public debt, which could create a risk for them if U.S. interest rates increase.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Direction of Capital Flows
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E. (2016)
Little is known about the comparative quantitative importance of international versus domestic market imperfections on international capital flows.
Economic Synopses , Issue 22 , Pages 1-2

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