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Texas Birth-Rate Decline Complicates Economic Growth Prospects
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.
Mounting Signs Point to a Texas Economic Slowdown
The most recent jobs report showed state employment was flat in August. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent (from 4.0 percent in July), and labor force and wage growth also eased.
Texas modestly grows with soft landing likely
Texas firms reported below-average output growth to start 2023, while employment and wage gains remained elevated despite indications of a softening labor market.
Recent growth of professional services jobs favors select Texas counties
Professional services jobs have grown faster in Texas than in the U.S. since 2020, partly because of business relocations to the state. This expansion has been highly geographically clustered, with 10 of Texas’ 254 counties accounting for more than 92 percent of the statewide growth.
Texas economic growth outpaces nation despite persistent downside risks
Texas employment growth advanced in May, continuing to surpass the national average.
Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health
Based on a calculation measuring the share of people born in each state who still live there, Texas is the nation’s “stickiest” state. The natives aren’t leaving.
Texas economic activity strengthens despite slowing job growth, greater price resistance
Texas employment growth slowed even as overall activity strengthened in August and September. Resistance to price increases rose.
Slowing Texas economy remains on track for a soft landing
The impact of a still-strong Texas jobs market and moderating business activities and costs suggest that the state’s economy may be headed for a soft landing following Fed policymaker efforts to cool inflationary pressures.
Texas economy moderates toward more normal growth in 2024
Texas economic growth remains healthy while gradually reverting to a more historically normal pace of expansion following the pandemic when a bust in the first half of 2020 preceded a subsequent boom.
Texas economic activity expands modestly; labor market remains healthy
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.