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Discussion Paper
Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic?
Nearly six years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, headline consumer price inflation has declined substantially from its 2021–2022 peaks in the United States, the euro area, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In several economies inflation has moved closer to central bank targets, yet price pressures remain elevated across a broad set of goods and services relative to the pre-pandemic period.
Discussion Paper
Population Growth and Labor Market Fragility: Lessons from Domestic and International Experiences
Labor market indicators such as employment growth and the unemployment rate are commonly used to assess the cyclical position of the economy (NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee). However, deciphering trend from cycle in these indicators is notoriously difficult and can be especially delicate when underlying trends in the economy shift rapidly.
Discussion Paper
The Effect of Oil Prices on Core Inflation: Recent Evidence from the Advanced Economies
Elevated oil prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty have renewed interest in a longstanding policy question: do supply shocks like oil-price increases pose a transitory or a persistent threat to price stability? This note sheds light on this question by providing new evidence on whether the inflation process has changed.
Discussion Paper
A Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes: U.S. Tariffs and Exports from Canada and Mexico
The 2025 U.S. tariff increases were followed by sharply different export outcomes in Canada and Mexico. Comparing the 12 months ending in April 2026 with calendar year 2024, Canadian goods exports to the United States fell about 10 percent, while Mexican exports rose about 16 percent, even though Mexico faced a higher average tariff exposure (figure 1). Do these contrasting outcomes mean that tariffs mattered for Canada but had little effect on Mexico, even though both economies depend heavily on the U.S. market?
Journal Article
Features: The Rise of Buy Now, Pay Later Plans
Chances are, while shopping at an online retailer, you might have encountered buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment options such as Klarna or Afterpay at checkout. Maybe you've even used BNPL before — after all, smoothing out a large-haul purchase over time sounds a lot nicer than paying all at once. This relatively new form of credit differs from traditional credit cards and their revolving lines of credit through its spread-out installments, usually fixed at four. BNPL requires an initial down payment with loans typically between $50 and $1,000 and is offered through specific retailers, tying ...
Discussion Paper
High and Dry: Banking Deserts Increased in the Fifth District During the Pandemic
The number of U.S. bank branches has been shrinking for years, but the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the rate of closures. After the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 allowed banks to open branches across state lines, branch networks spread steadily across the country. That expansion continued until the Great Recession, after which banks moved from growing their physical footprints to increasing their automated services, like ATMs and online banking.