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Journal Article
Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Rich, Robert W.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2010-08)
Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households' decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households' inflation expectations, ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Aug/Sep

Report
Nonlinear time series modelling: an introduction
Potter, Simon M. (1999)
Recent developments in nonlinear time series modelling are reviewed. Three main types of nonlinear models are discussed: Markov Switching, Threshold Autoregression and Smooth Transition Autoregression. Classical and Bayesian estimation techniques are described for each model. Parametric tests for nonlinearity are reviewed with examples from the three types of models. Finally, forecasting and impulse response analysis is developed.
Staff Reports , Paper 87

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

Speech
Implementation of open market operations in a time of transition
Potter, Simon M. (2014-10-25)
Remarks before the Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo, Japan.
Speech , Paper 142

Speech
The supply of money-like assets: remarks for American Economic Association panel session: The Balance Sheets of Central Banks and the Shortage of Safe Assets, Philadelphia
Potter, Simon M. (2018-01-06)
Remarks for American Economic Association Panel Session: The Balance Sheets of Central Banks and the Shortage of Safe Assets, Philadelphia.
Speech , Paper 269

Report
Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Bryan, Michael F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2008)
This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly different price concepts. For near-term inflation, the "prices in general" question in the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers can elicit responses that focus on the most visible prices, such as gasoline or food. Questions on the "rate of inflation" can lead to responses on the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 359

Speech
Is there room for more monetary cooperation?: panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France
Potter, Simon M. (2016-09-30)
Panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France.
Speech , Paper 218

Report
The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG
Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W.; Amstad, Marlene (2014-04-22)
Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the ?FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)? for CPI and PCE. Using a dynamic factor model approach, the UIG is derived from a broad data set that extends beyond price series to include a wide range of nominal, real, and financial variables. It also considers the specific and time-varying ...
Staff Reports , Paper 672

Report
Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points
Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon M. (2004)
This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter model with a change point every period and the change-point model with a small number of regimes. We focus on the construction of reasonable hierarchical priors both for regime durations and for the parameters that characterize each regime. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler is constructed to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 196

Journal Article
Economic restructuring in New York State
Sela, Rebecca J.; Groshen, Erica L.; Potter, Simon M. (2004-06)
When economic activity slows down, labor markets may undergo extensive structural change-the permanent reallocation of workers across industries. Job losses can be heavy, and creating new jobs and retraining displaced workers to fill them can take time. A high degree of restructuring may help to explain why New York State's most recent downturn persisted for well over two years. Subseries: Second District Highlights.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 10 , Issue Jun

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