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Journal Article
Economic Perspectives special issue on payments fraud: an introduction
This article provides an overview of this special issue of Economic Perspectives, which presents selected papers based on the proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's eighth annual Payments Conference, Payments Fraud: Perception Versus Reality, held on June 5?6, 2008.
Journal Article
Transforming payment choices by doubling fees on the Illinois Tollway
Using data from the Illinois Tollway, the authors study the effectiveness of a particular application of pricing incentives, in conjunction with a mass-marketing campaign, to foster adoption of electronic toll collection. Dissecting the consumer response by income level, the authors reveal interesting heterogeneity of consumer payment choice in this environment.
Working Paper
The continuing weakness in the M2
Working Paper
P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity.
This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to ...
Journal Article
The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?
Federal Reserve bank notes are widely used outside the United States. Knowledge of how much U.S. currency is abroad is important for a variety of reasons, but currency movements are notoriously difficult to measure, and estimates of the foreign component of currency stocks and flows have been subject to a great deal of speculation and uncertainty. This article brings together several new methods and data sources to narrow the range of that uncertainty. The authors estimate that about $200 billion-$250 billion of U.S. currency was abroad at the end of 1995, or more than half the roughly $375 ...
Discussion Paper
Multiple time series containing unobserved components
Journal Article
The efficiency and integrity of payment card systems: industry views on the risks posed by data breaches
To examine the adequacy of existing efforts to prevent, manage, and mitigate data breaches and other fraud in card-based payment systems, the authors conducted 17 interviews of various payment industry participants in 2009. This article documents the insights gained from the interviews, which consider the need for greater cooperation, sharing of relevant information, and innovation to stay ahead of the criminals that perpetrate payment card fraud with increasingly sophisticated methods.
Journal Article
Against the tide—currency use among Latin American immigrants in Chicago
While the U.S. continues to transition away from cash toward electronic payment methods, some population segments continue to rely heavily on cash. In this study of foreign-born Latin Americans in Chicago, the authors find that the dramatic increase in the number of immigrants is supporting a growing demand for currency, notably in the $100 denomination.