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Journal Article
Understanding the behavior of M2 and V2
Discussion Paper
M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level
Working Paper
Estimating the worldwide volume of counterfeit U.S. currency: data and extrapolation
The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Secret Service. This paper assembles data from Federal Reserve and U.S. Secret Service sources and presents a range of estimates for the number of counterfeits in circulation. In addition, the paper presents figures on counterfeit passing activity by denomination, location, and method of production. The paper has two main conclusions: first, the stock of ...
Newsletter
Improving security for remote payments
Given the growing popularity of e-commerce and m-commerce over the past few years, remote payments have become commonplace. Unfortunately, remote payments fraud has grown in response. On September 26, 2011, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Secure Remote Payment Council (SRPc) co-hosted a symposium to discuss strategies that help reduce such forms of fraud.
Journal Article
Economic Perspectives special issue on payments fraud: an introduction
This article provides an overview of this special issue of Economic Perspectives, which presents selected papers based on the proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's eighth annual Payments Conference, Payments Fraud: Perception Versus Reality, held on June 5?6, 2008.
Journal Article
Transforming payment choices by doubling fees on the Illinois Tollway
Using data from the Illinois Tollway, the authors study the effectiveness of a particular application of pricing incentives, in conjunction with a mass-marketing campaign, to foster adoption of electronic toll collection. Dissecting the consumer response by income level, the authors reveal interesting heterogeneity of consumer payment choice in this environment.
Newsletter
Inducing more efficient payment on the Illinois Tollway
Historically, an important part of Chicago?s economic strength derived from its geographic location at the nexus of the country?s transportation networks. Yet, until quite recently, the payment options on the Illinois Tollway seemed incongruous with the remarkably efficient transportation network that has kept Chicago on the country?s economic forefront.
Working Paper
P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity.
This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to ...
Journal Article
The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?
Federal Reserve bank notes are widely used outside the United States. Knowledge of how much U.S. currency is abroad is important for a variety of reasons, but currency movements are notoriously difficult to measure, and estimates of the foreign component of currency stocks and flows have been subject to a great deal of speculation and uncertainty. This article brings together several new methods and data sources to narrow the range of that uncertainty. The authors estimate that about $200 billion-$250 billion of U.S. currency was abroad at the end of 1995, or more than half the roughly $375 ...