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Journal Article
Demographics and the long-term outlook for housing investment
John Hill and D'Ann Petersen measure the importance of projected shifts in the size and age distribution of the U.S. population for domestic housing investment. Their analysis runs through the year 2010 and provides separate estimates for single-family and multifamily investment. ; Hill and Petersen find that the contractionary effects of the population slowdown are already being felt in the housing industry and probably have been since the latter part of the 1980s. In Hill and Petersen's simulations, demographic shifts lower net housing investment by 17 percent from the late 1980s through ...
Journal Article
The Texas construction sector: the tail that wagged the dog
The boom-to-bust days of the Texas construction industry will linger in people's memory for many years. D'Ann Petersen, Keith Phillips, and Mine Yucel examine the factors that led to the rise and fall of the Texas construction industry and determine the role the industry played in the state's volatile economy during the 1970s and 1980s. ; Petersen, Phillips, and Yucel employ an econometric model to analyze the roles residential and nonresidential construction played in the state's economic fluctuations from 1976 through 1990. The authors find that, although large swings in oil prices were the ...
Journal Article
Does being different matter?
Changes in the demographic structure of the U.S. population will affect many aspects of the US economy as we move into the next century. Concerns about the impact of an aging population on savings and interest rates, the financing of government spending programs for the elderly, and the possibility of higher taxes for future generations to pay for them have become hot topics, both in the press and among economists. Another concern is whether rising immigration will place an even greater burden on the government. In this article, Finn Kydland and D'Ann Petersen present a framework ...
Journal Article
Texas dodges worst of foreclosure woes
The housing bust leaves in its wake elevated foreclosure levels in Texas and the U.S. Like other consequences of the bust, including declines in construction and existing-home sales, foreclosures have been less severe in Texas. While the nation's foreclosure rate has grown nearly sixfold over the last four years, Texas' has climbed only marginally. ; Housing markets in Texas and the U.S. have shown signs of stabilizing in recent months. Home sales and construction starts are beginning to tick up, thanks in large part to low mortgage rates and the first-time homebuyer tax credit. Despite the ...
Journal Article
Regional update
Journal Article
Texas: demographically different
Journal Article
Silicon prairie: how high tech is redefining Texas' economy
Journal Article
Will office real estate in Texas ever recover?