Search Results
Working Paper
Economic and regulatory capital allocation for revolving retail exposures
The latest revision of the Internal Ratings Based approach of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's New Capital Accord Proposal for retail portfolios contains a significant innovation relative to previous versions: the recognition that, for revolving credits, future margin income will be available to cover losses before a bank's capital is threatened. We assemble a mini-portfolio of revolving exposures and we compare the capital charges generated by the latest Basel's formula with the capital charges generated by two possible earnings-at-risk internal capital allocation models. We find ...
Working Paper
Does mortgage hedging amplify movements in long-term interest rates?
The growth of the mortgage market in recent years has raised the question of what effects, if any, the hedging of mortgage portfolios has on the behavior of long-term interest rates. This paper finds that the volatility of the ten-year swap rate implied by swaptions increases when the prepayment risk of outstanding mortgages increases--most likely because investors expect the hedging of prepayment risk to amplify future interest rate movements. These amplification effects can be considerable in magnitude, but they are generally expected to persist only for several months.
Speech
Money Market Conditions and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
Remarks at 2025 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech
Market Intelligence and the Monetary Policy Process
Remarks at the Deutsche Bundesbank – Representative Office New York, New York City.
Speech
Transcript of Roberto Perli on the Macro Musings Podcast
Slowing the pace of its balance sheet runoff is an important step the Fed can take to more effectively manage risks while allowing the banking system to adapt to lower levels of reserves.
Speech
Recent Developments in Treasury Market Liquidity and Funding Conditions
Remarks at the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC.
Working Paper
Financial market perceptions of recession risk
Over the Great Moderation period in the United States, we find that corporate credit spreads embed crucial information about the one-year-ahead probability of recession, as evidenced by both in- and out-of-sample fit. Furthermore, the incidence of ?false positive? predictions of recession is dramatically reduced by utilizing a bivariate model that includes a measure of credit spreads along with the slope of the yield curve; indeed, these bivariate models provide much better forecasting performance than any combination of univariate models. We also find that optimal (Bayesian) model ...
Journal Article
Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2002
Despite the lackluster performance of the U.S. economy, the profitability of the U.S. commercial banking industry was again high in 2002, and the return on bank assets reached its highest level in more than three decades. Profitability was spurred in considerable part by declines in market interest rates to extraordinarily low levels. Short-term interest rates were low throughout 2002 as a result of the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing the year before in response to economic weakness, and longer-term rates fell to multidecade lows by year-end. Nevertheless, the yield curve steepened on ...
Working Paper
Regime-switching in expectations over the business cycle
In this paper the authors argue that a plausible reason why output and other major U.S. macroeconomic time series seem to follow a Markov switching process might be strictly related to expectations. The authors show that a time series of expectations of future output from the Survey of Professional Forecasters is the only one among the many they analyze that has switching properties compatible with those of output. Starting from this empirical evidence the authors present a business cycle model with shocks to expectations (sunspots) that produces time series with the same properties as the ...
Speech
Current Issues in Monetary Policy Implementation
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.