Search Results
Journal Article
Can trade links transmit a European crisis?
A GIIPS crisis wouldn't have too strong an effect on the U.S. economy, but an EU-wide crisis may be a serious concern.
Journal Article
New technology may cause stock volatility
Journal Article
Households during the Great Recession: the financial accelerator in action?
Households are the sector that the financial accelerator appears to have hit hardest, according to the data.
Journal Article
The U.S. financial sector's value added: trends now and then
The U.S. financial growth between 1995 and 2006 certainly translated into record-high shareholder returns. Labor compensation returns were also dramatically high at the onset of the current crisis.
Journal Article
Real estate bubbles and weak recoveries
The slow economic recovery may be, at least in part, the natural result of the real estate bubble.
Report
On Financing Retirement, Health Care, and Long-Term Care in Japan
Japan is facing the problem of how to finance retirement, health care, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macro- and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals relative to other financing options, including ...
Journal Article
What happened to the U.S. stock market? accounting for the past 50 years
The extreme volatility of stock market values has been the subject of a large body of literature. Previous research focused on the short run because of a widespread belief that in the long run the market reverts to well-established fundamentals. The authors' research suggests this belief should be questioned. First, they show actual dividends cannot account for the secular trends of stock market values. They then consider a more comprehensive measure of capital income, which displays large secular fluctuations that roughly coincide with changes in stock market trends. Under perfect foresight, ...
Journal Article
Has the recent real estate bubble biased the output gap?
We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.
Journal Article
The European debt crisis and U.S. economic growth
The recent strengthening of the correlations between U.S. GDP growth and that of Mexico, Canada, and Euro-19 validates further consideration of the performance of U.S. trade partners for growth.
Working Paper
Sectoral shocks, reallocation frictions, and optimal government spending
What is the optimal policy response to a negative sectoral shock? How do frictions in goods and labor markets affect the nature and speed of the process of reallocating resources across alternative uses? Should government controlled inputs be allocated to compensate for frictions faced by the private sector or, rather, should they be deployed to complement private sector decisions? In this paper we make a first attempt to understand what features of an economy determine the answers to the previous questions. We study a model in which the drop in the private demand for structures frees up ...