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Working Paper
Is bank supervision central to central banking?
Recently, several central banks have lost their bank supervisory responsibilities, in part because it has not been shown that supervisory authority improves the conduct of monetary policy. This paper finds that confidential bank supervisory information could help the Board staff more accurately forecast important macroeconomic variables and is used by FOMC members to guide monetary policy. These findings suggest that the complementarity between supervisory responsibilities and monetary policy should be an important consideration when evaluating the structure of the central bank.
Working Paper
The poor performance of foreign bank subsidiaries: were the problems acquired or created?
We examine foreign acquisitions of United States banks around the time of the ownership change to determine whether the observed poor performance of foreign subsidiaries is the result of changes in business strategy or the preexisting characteristics of the target bank. We find that many of the problems were already present at the time of acquisition. However, changes in business strategy by the foreign owners were generally not successful in raising the banks's performance level to that of its domestic peers.
Journal Article
The stock market and economic activity
Working Paper
Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it
Even in a world with rational expectations, it has been well established theoretically that if the central bank possesses information superior to that available to the public, there is room for effective and socially beneficial countercyclical monetary policy. This paper tests whether confidential information from bank supervisors could be one source of any such informational advantage. In particular, we examine whether information gained from bank supervision activities could substantially improve the forecasts of macroeconomic variables important for guiding monetary policy. We find that ...
Conference Paper
International implications of disclosing supervisory information
Journal Article
Business failures in New England
During the 1980s, the New England economy prospered relative to the nation as a whole, with lower unemployment rates, more rapidly rising real estate prices, and lower rates of business failures. As the economic tide turned against New England at the end of the decade, the rate of business failures soared, in absolute terms as well as relative to nationwide statistics. This recent wave of business failures appears to have been far in excess of that attributable to the decline in New England economic activity. Moreoever, it has undesirable implications for the regional economy and can be ...
Report
Credit supply disruptions: from credit crunches to financial crisis
Events that transpired during the recent financial crisis highlight the important role that financial intermediaries still play in the economy, especially during economic downturns. While the breadth and severity of the financial crisis took most observers by surprise, it has renewed academic interest in understanding the effects on the real economy of both financial shocks and the changing nature of financial intermediation. This interest in the real effects of financial shocks highlights a literature that began more than 20 years ago associated with the bank credit crunch of the early ...
Journal Article
Household wealth composition: the impact of capital gains
Journal Article
A call to ARMs: adjustable rate mortgages in the 1980s
Adjustable rate mortgages, long-term loans that provide for interest rate changes at regular intervals over their lifetimes, have recently become a major source of residential mortgage financing in this country. Today adjustable rate mortgages probably account for close to 25 percent of total home mortgage debt. ; While adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) have grown to be an important factor in mortgage lending, their variety and complexity have led to confusion. This article discusses their advantages and disadvantages to both borrowers and lenders, and highlights the nature of the risks ...