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Working Paper
“Good” Inflation, “Bad” Inflation: Implications for Risky Asset Prices
Using inflation swap prices, we study how changes in expected inflation affect firm-level credit spreads and equity returns, and uncover evidence of a time-varying inflation sensitivity. In times of “good inflation,” when inflation news is perceived by investors to be more positively correlated with real economic growth, movements in expected inflation substantially reduce corporate credit spreads and raise equity valuations. Meanwhile in times of “bad inflation,” these effects are attenuated and the opposite can take place. These dynamics naturally arise in an equilibrium asset ...
Discussion Paper
Corporate Profits in the aftermath of COVID-19
This note documents the behavior of corporate profit margins during and in the aftermath of the pandemic. As the traditional measure of corporate profit margin is heavily affected by fiscal support and its withdrawal, it also proposes an alternative measure.
Discussion Paper
The post-COVID stock listing boom
In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. equity markets have witnessed a surge in the number of publicly listed companies. Using data for the three major U.S. stock exchanges (AMEX, NYSE, and NASDAQ), we find that the number of publicly traded companies went from 4,144 at the end of August 2020 to 5,301 at the end of December 2021, a staggering increase of about 28 percent.
Discussion Paper
Spike in 2019Q1 Leverage Ratios: The Impact of Operating Leases
In this note, we show that the key driver of the 2019:Q1 increase in the leverage ratio appears to be a change in accounting rules – which requires the inclusion of operating leases as financial liabilities on U.S. corporations' balance sheets – and also provide a methodology for adjusting the leverage ratio to allow for cleaner historical comparisons.