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Working Paper
Substitution elasticities and investment dynamics in two country business cycle models
Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies an anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: The prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to a counterfactual implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. The introduction of investment adjustment costs can induce positive investment comovement; however, this has the side-effect of reversing the cyclical behavior of net ...
Journal Article
The business cycle and chain-weighted GDP: has our perspective changed?
Our perspective on the U.S. economy's recent performance has been challenged recently by changes in the methodology used to adjust the National Income and Product Accounts for inflation. Michael R. Pakko surveys the changes embodied in the revised data, examining the question of whether or not the revisions alter our view of the overall pattern of economic fluctuations known collectively as the business cycle.
Journal Article
Aircraft turbulence
Journal Article
Future oil
Journal Article
How dangerous is the U.S. current account deficit?
Although this deficit has been rising steadily since the early 1990s, a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy is unlikely. One reason is that only in the United States can so many foreigners invest so much money and get such good returns.
Journal Article
A new picture of metro-area employment in the Eighth District
Journal Article
Clearing the haze? new evidence on the economic impact of smoking bans
When smoking bans were debated in the past, the economic costs were seldom considered. But that's changing, as studies reveal the costs being paid by bars, restaurants and casinos, as well as by employees of these establishments.
Journal Article
The U.S. trade deficit and the "new economy"
Amidst the overall strength and longevity of the U.S. economic expansion of the 1990s, a growing current account deficit is one indicator that often is viewed with concern. In this article, Michael Pakko discusses some basic economic principles about current accounts and how they relate to the U.S. experience during the 1990s. He suggests that recent deficits should not be thought of as a source of weakness in an otherwise vigorous economy, but rather, that they are reflective of the same forces underlying recent economic strength.
Working Paper
On the information content of asymmetric FOMC policy statements: evidence from a Taylor-rule perspective
Over the past two decades, the FOMC has included in its policy decisions a statement of bias toward subsequent tightening or easing of policy. This paper examines the predictive content of these statements in a Taylor-rule setting, finding that they convey information that is useful for forecasting changes in the federal funds rate target, even after controlling for policy responses to inflation and the output gap. Moreover, the evidence suggests that this asymmetry can be represented in terms of shifts to the parameters of the Taylor-rule equation, indicating a greater or lesser degree of ...
Working Paper
Do high interest rates stem capital outflows?
Conventional wisdom posits that high interest rates stem capital flight and currency depreciation. Some have argued, however that the standard prescription exacerbates the problems. This paper set out a framework for evaluating the conditions under which an increase in domestic interest rates fails to reverse capital outflow. The possibility that high domestic interest rates might have unorthodox effects arises through a risk premium: If raising interest rates increases the possibility associated with default, the result can be a worsening of the country's capital account position.