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Working Paper
Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Halvorsen, Salgado, Ozkan. We use 1993--2015 Norwegian administrative panel data on wealth and income to study lifecycle wealth dynamics. By employing a novel budget constraint approach, we show that at age 50 the excess wealth of the top 0.1%, relative to mid-wealth households, is accounted for by higher saving rates (38%), inheritances (34%), returns (23%), and labor income (5%). One-fourth of the wealthiest---the "New Money"---start with negative wealth but experience rapid wealth growth early in life. Relative to the "Old Money," the New Money are ...
Working Paper
Earnings Dynamics and Its Intergenerational Transmission: Evidence from Norway
Using administrative data from Norway, we first present stylized facts on labor earnings dynamics between 1993 and 2017 and its heterogeneity across narrow population groups. We then investigate the parents’ role in children’s income dynamics—the intergenerational transmission of income dynamics. We find that children of high-income, high-wealth fathers enjoy steeper income growth over the life cycle and face more volatile but more positively skewed income changes, suggesting that they are more likely to pursue high-return, high-risk careers. Children of poorer fathers also face more ...
Working Paper
The nature of countercyclical income risk
This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of anonymous individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing 10 percent of all U.S. males from 1978 to 2010. We use these data to decompose individual earnings growth during recessions into "between-group" and "within-group" components. We begin with the behavior of within-group shocks. Contrary to past research, we do not find the variance of idiosyncratic ...
Job Mobility Patterns and Lifetime Earnings Disparities among Male Workers
Examining long-term wage growth of male workers, an analysis finds that job mobility can provide insights into the disparities in lifetime earnings distribution.
Working Paper
Preventive vs. Curative Medicine: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Health Care over the Life Cycle
This paper studies differences in health care usage and health outcomes between low- and high-income individuals. Using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) I find that early in life the rich spend significantly more on health care, whereas from middle to very old age medical spending of the poor surpasses that of the rich by 25%. In addition, low-income individuals are less likely to incur any medical expenditures in a given year, yet, when they do, their expenses are more likely to be extreme. To account for these facts, I develop and estimate a life-cycle model of two ...
Working Paper
Theory Meets Textual Analysis: Measuring Firm-Level Labor Cost Pressures and Inflation Pass-Through
We develop a novel measure of firm-level marginal labor cost and investigate its inflation pass-through. We apply textual analysis to earnings calls to identify labordiscussions. Leveraging cost-minimization theory that firms equate marginal revenue products across variable inputs, we regress intermediate input revenue shares on labor discussion intensity to recover marginal labor cost shocks. This theory-based approach aggregates multidimensional qualitative information into a single measure. Our aggregate index outperforms conventional slack variables in forecasting inflation. Industry ...
Working Paper
Scalable vs. Productive Technologies
Do larger firms have more productive technologies or are their technologies more scalable, or both? We use administrative data on Canadian and US firms to estimate flexible nonparametric production functions. Our estimation results in a joint distribution of output elasticities of capital, labor, and intermediate inputs---therefore, returns to scale (RTS)---along with total factor productivity (TFP). We find significant heterogeneity in both RTS and TFP across firms. Larger firms operate technologies with higher RTS, both across and within industries. Higher RTS for large firms are entirely ...
Recent College Grads Bear Brunt of Labor Market Shifts
This year, young college graduates between ages 23 and 27 are experiencing jobless rates that are notably higher than the rates seen before the pandemic.
Does Worker Scarcity Spur Investment, Automation and Productivity? Evidence from Earnings Calls
An analysis suggests labor issues like higher wages and hiring difficulties have prompted some firms to invest in automation, leading to productivity growth.