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Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic
Nie, Jun; Xie, Zoe (2020-08-06)
The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increased the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about substantial effects on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of the CARES Act UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment but also reduce infection and save lives. Economic shutdown policies further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, the CARES ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-07

Journal Article
Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts
Nie, Jun; Hakkio, Craig S. (2014-10)
The development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has brought significant structural change to the energy sector, increasing energy production and decreasing net energy imports. Future changes in energy policy or technology could have even larger effects on energy exports and thus overall exports. As a result, distinguishing energy from non-energy components of trade becomes important for forecasts in both the near and longer term. Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie introduce models separating energy from the non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production ...
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 29-51

Working Paper
Human capital dynamics and the U.S. labor market
Nie, Jun; Fang, Lei (2014-01-01)
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-10

Journal Article
The CARES Act Unemployment Insurance Program during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fang, Lei; Nie, Jun; Xie, Zoe (2020-12-21)
The outbreak of COVID-19 led to widespread shutdowns in March and April 2020 and an historically unprecedented increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) through the CARES Act. This article summarizes the key policy-relevant results from Fang, Nie, and Xie (2020), whose research examines the interactions of virus infection risk, shutdown policy, and increased UI generosity.
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 16 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing
Luo, Yulei; Young, Eric R.; Nie, Jun (2012)
In this paper we examine how model uncertainty due to the preference for robustness (RB) affects optimal taxation and debt structure in the Barro tax-smoothing model (1979). We first study how the government spending shocks are absorbed in the short run by varying taxes or through debt under RB. Furthermore, we show that introducing RB can improve the model?s predictions by generating (i) the observed relative volatility of the changes in tax rates to government spending and (ii) the observed comovement between government deficits and spending, and (iii) more consistent behavior of government ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 12-01

Journal Article
Would active labor market policies help combat high U.S. unemployment?
Struby, Ethan; Nie, Jun (2011-07)
Two years after the end of the 2007-09 recession, the unemployment rate in the United States remains above 9 percent - roughly double its pre-recession level. ; Nie and Struby analyze the cyclical and structural components of this elevated level of unemployment, active and passive labor market policies, and how the policies are utilized in the United States and 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation Development countries. ; The analysis finds that two active programs can be particularly effective: training programs that equip unemployed workers with skills that are in demand and job-search ...
Economic Review , Volume 96 , Issue Q III , Pages 35-69

Working Paper
Robustness, information-processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies
Luo, Yulei; Young, Eric R.; Nie, Jun (2010)
We examine the effects of two types of informational frictions, robustness (RB) and nite information-processing capacity (called rational inattention or RI) on the current account, in an otherwise standard intertemporal current account (ICA) model. We show that the interaction of RB and RI has the potential to improve the model?s predictions on the joint dynamics of the current account and income: (i) the contemporaneous correlation between the current account and income, (ii) the volatility and persistence of the current account in small open emerging and developed economies. In addition, we ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-17

Journal Article
What Could Resurging U.S. Energy Production Mean for the U.S. Trade Deficit?
Nie, Jun; Cakir Melek, Nida (2018-03-07)
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data
Nie, Jun; Hakkio, Craig S. (2018-12-01)
We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-14

Working Paper
Robust permanent income in general equilibrium
Luo, Yulei; Young, Eric R.; Nie, Jun (2015-10-29)
This paper provides a tractable continuous-time constant-absolute-risk averse (CARA)-Gaussian framework to quantitatively explore how the preference for robustness (RB) affects the interest rate, the dynamics of consumption and income, and the welfare costs of model uncertainty in general equilibrium. We show that RB significantly reduces the equilibrium interest rate, and reduces the relative volatility of consumption growth to income growth when the income process is stationary. Furthermore, we find that the welfare costs of model uncertainty are nontrivial for plausibly estimated income ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-14

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