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Author:Nie, Jun 

Journal Article
What Could Resurging U.S. Energy Production Mean for the U.S. Trade Deficit?

Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Wealth distribution with state-dependent risk aversion

Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-9

Journal Article
Coronavirus Dampens China’s First-Quarter GDP

The novel coronavirus spread in China long before other countries, making China a potential early signal of the virus’s economic effects. Using a range of statistical models, we estimate that the coronavirus outbreak may have reduced China’s real GDP by an annualized rate of 32 percent, leading year-over-year growth to decline from 6 percent in 2019:Q4 to −3.8 percent in 2020:Q1.
Economic Bulletin , Issue April 6, 2020 , Pages 5

Journal Article
China’s slowing housing market and GDP growth.

Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Robustness, information-processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies

We examine the effects of two types of informational frictions, robustness (RB) and nite information-processing capacity (called rational inattention or RI) on the current account, in an otherwise standard intertemporal current account (ICA) model. We show that the interaction of RB and RI has the potential to improve the model?s predictions on the joint dynamics of the current account and income: (i) the contemporaneous correlation between the current account and income, (ii) the volatility and persistence of the current account in small open emerging and developed economies. In addition, we ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-17

Journal Article
Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future

Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer examine the recent rise in the share of consumer spending in Chinese GDP to assess whether China can become a consumption-driven economy.
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 25-49

Journal Article
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?

During the pandemic, the share of retirees in the U.S. population rose much faster than its normal pace. Typically, an increase in this share is driven by more people transitioning from employment to retirement. However, we show that the recent increase was instead driven by fewer people transitioning from retirement back into employment, likely due to pandemic-related health risks. More retirees may rejoin the workforce as these health risks fade, but the retirement share is unlikely to return to a normal level for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 11, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Would active labor market policies help combat high U.S. unemployment?

Two years after the end of the 2007-09 recession, the unemployment rate in the United States remains above 9 percent - roughly double its pre-recession level. ; Nie and Struby analyze the cyclical and structural components of this elevated level of unemployment, active and passive labor market policies, and how the policies are utilized in the United States and 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation Development countries. ; The analysis finds that two active programs can be particularly effective: training programs that equip unemployed workers with skills that are in demand and job-search ...
Economic Review , Volume 96 , Issue Q III , Pages 35-69

Journal Article
U.S.exports and foreign economic growth : which regions matter most?

U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Has China’s Growth Reached a Turning Point?

A new measure of China?s economic activity shows its momentum has increased in the first half of the year?however, an analysis of its underlying forces suggests this momentum may not be sustainable. In addition, strength in policy-related variables has been waning, creating additional downside risks to near-term growth.
Macro Bulletin

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