Journal Article
Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Nichols, Jalen (2023-05-12)
Corporate profits rose quickly in 2021 along with inflation, raising concerns about corporations driving up prices to increase profits. Although corporate profits indeed contributed to inflation in 2021, their contribution fell in 2022. This pattern is not unusual: in previous economic recoveries, corporate profits were the main contributor to inflation in the first year and displaced by costs in the second year.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Forecasting with Feelings: The Modest Link Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Nichols, Jalen (2025-05-16)
Recent declines in consumer sentiment have prompted concerns about an impending slowdown in spending growth. However, the link between consumer sentiment and growth in real household spending has been modest historically, suggesting changes in consumer sentiment are unlikely to significantly alter forecasts of household spending. Consistent with this interpretation, despite the downbeat tone from consumers, sentiment does not meaningfully alter near-term predictions of 2025 spending growth.
Economic Bulletin