Search Results
Journal Article
Liquidity mismatch helps predict bank failure and distress
Liquidity mismatch?the risk of a bank being unable to fund increases in assets or meet its obligations as they come due?increased in the U.S. banking sector during the run-up to the financial crisis, especially at the largest institutions, contributing to bank failure and distress.
Working Paper
House prices and credit constraints: making sense of the U.S. experience
Most U.S. house price models break down in the mid-2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the subprime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time homebuyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions?the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers?into house price-to-rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.
Journal Article
When will the U.S. housing market stabilize?
The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the housing market stabilize and support the economic recovery? We suggest that new home construction may stabilize and start recovering slowly within the next year or so. Our econometric results also indicate that national house prices may hit bottom late this year or in early 2012 and then recover slowly.
Working Paper
The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility
We propose a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and sign, and also provide noise-robust versions of the ABD jump test (Andersen et al., 2007b) and realized semivariance measures. We find that infinite (finite) jumps improve the forecasts at shorter (longer) horizons; but the contribution of signed jumps is limited. As expected, noise-robust measures deliver substantial forecast improvements at higher sampling frequencies, although standard volatility measures at the 300-second frequency generate the smallest MSPEs. Since no single model ...
Decline in bank stress likely to continue as interest rates normalize
While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.
Why House Prices Surged as the COVID-19 Pandemic Took Hold
In the wake of the short but steep COVID-19 recession, house prices have risen at record levels in recent months, hitting the peak increase of 19.3 percent in July 2021.
Working Paper
Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
We develop a Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) based on a range of mobility metrics from Safegraph geolocation data, and validate the index with mobility data from Google and Unacast. We construct MEIs at the county, MSA, state and nationwide level, and link these measures to indicators of economic activity. According to our measures, the bulk of sheltering-in-place and social disengagement occurred during the week of March 15 and simultaneously across the U.S. At the national peak of the decline in mobility in early April, localities that engaged in a 10% larger decrease in mobility than ...
Working Paper
The impact of hurricanes on housing prices: evidence from U.S. coastal cities
We investigate the effect of hurricane strikes on housing prices in U.S. coastal cities. To this end, we construct a new index of hurricane destruction which varies over time and space. Using this index and an annual, two equation, dynamic equilibrium correction panel model with area and time fixed effects, we model the effects of hurricanes on real house process and real incomes. In our model hurricanes have a direct effect on house prices and an indirect effect via a fall in local incomes. Our results show that the typical hurricane strike raises real house prices for a number of years, ...
Working Paper
The Contribution of Jump Activity and Sign to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility
This paper proposes a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and by sign. We also provide noise-robust versions of the ABD jump test (Andersen et al. 2007) and realized semivariance measures for use at high frequency sampling intervals. The volatility forecasting exercise involves the use of different types of jumps, forecast horizons, sampling frequencies, calendar and transaction time-based sampling schemes, as well as standard and noise-robust volatility measures. We find that infinite (finite) jumps improve the forecasts at shorter ...
Working Paper
Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices
The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of U.S. house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000s. We incorporate data on credit constraints for first-time buyers into a model of U.S. house prices based on the (inverted) demand for housing services. The model yields not only a stable long-run cointegrating relationship, a reasonable speed of adjustment, plausible income and price elasticities and an improved fit, but also sensible estimates of tax credit effects and the possible ...