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Discussion Paper
Looking for Shortages of Skilled Labor in the Manufacturing Sector
Anecdotal reports have suggested that some firms have struggled to find sufficient numbers of skilled workers.
Discussion Paper
Annual Data on Investment and Capital Stocks
As part of the estimation of capacity for publication of its G.17 statistical release on industrial production and capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve Board produces annual information on the real capital stock and real investment for detailed industries within the manufacturing sector.
Working Paper
Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis
This paper examines the link between industrial production and the sentiment expressed in natural language survey responses from U.S. manufacturing firms. We compare several natural language processing (NLP) techniques for classifying sentiment, ranging from dictionary-based methods to modern deep learning methods. Using a manually labeled sample as ground truth, we find that deep learning models partially trained on a human-labeled sample of our data outperform other methods for classifying the sentiment of survey responses. Further, we capitalize on the panel nature of the data to train ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2001 annual revision
In late 2001, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published the annual revision of its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 to October 2001. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more-comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. ; Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, increases in rates of industrial output and capacity have been revised downward from rates previously reported for 1999 and 2000. The revision ...
Working Paper
Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements
Cointegration theory provides a flexible class of statistical models that combine long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. This paper presents three likelihood ratio (LR) tests for simultaneously testing restrictions on cointegrating relationships and on how quickly the system reacts to the deviation from equilibrium implied by the cointegrating relationships. Both the orthogonal complements of the cointegrating vectors and of the vectors of adjustment speeds have been used to define the common stochastic trends of a nonstationary system. The restrictions implicitly placed on the ...
Journal Article
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Recent Developments and the 1999 Revision
In late 1999, the Federal Reserve published revised measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 through October 1 999. The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series, including computer and office equipment and motor vehicles. The new source data are for recent years, primarily from 1997 on, and the modified methods affect data beginning in 1992. The production index for the third quarter ...
Working Paper
Technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization
This paper examines the relationships between technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization. Recent technological changes have increased the flexibility of relationships between inputs and outputs in manufacturing, which may have eroded the predictive value of the utilization rate. This paper considers how technology might be expected to affect utilization. We show that recent changes could either lower average utilization by making it cheaper to hold excess capacity, or raise utilization by making further changes in capacity less costly and time-consuming. We then examine the ...