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Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2001 annual revision
In late 2001, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published the annual revision of its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 to October 2001. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more-comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. ; Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, increases in rates of industrial output and capacity have been revised downward from rates previously reported for 1999 and 2000. The revision ...
Working Paper
Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media
The news media affects consumers' perceptions of the economy through three channels. First, the news media conveys the latest economic data and the opinions of professionals to consumers. Second, consumers receive a signal about the economy through the tone and volume of economic reporting. Last, the greater the volume of news about the economy, the greater the likelihood that consumers will update their expectations about the economy. We find evidence that all three of these channels affect consumer sentiment. We derive measures of the tone and volume of economic reporting, building upon the ...
Discussion Paper
Residual Seasonality in GDP
With a second year in a row of unusually weak first-quarter growth, some analysts have argued that there may be residual seasonality in the GDP data, that is, a predictable seasonal pattern remains in the published data.
Discussion Paper
Looking for Shortages of Skilled Labor in the Manufacturing Sector
Anecdotal reports have suggested that some firms have struggled to find sufficient numbers of skilled workers.
Working Paper
Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements
Cointegration theory provides a flexible class of statistical models that combine long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. This paper presents three likelihood ratio (LR) tests for simultaneously testing restrictions on cointegrating relationships and on how quickly the system reacts to the deviation from equilibrium implied by the cointegrating relationships. Both the orthogonal complements of the cointegrating vectors and of the vectors of adjustment speeds have been used to define the common stochastic trends of a nonstationary system. The restrictions implicitly placed on the ...
Working Paper
Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?
We look for evidence of "hysteresis" in the U.S. unemployment rate - that is, that current labor market outcomes affect the future equilibrium level of the unemployment rate. We first examine (using a variety of econometric tests for unit roots) whether the unemployment rate tends to come back to a long-run average over time. On balance, our results suggest that the unemployment rate tends to return to a long-run value, ruling out the possibility of permanent hysteresis. We look for evidence of temporary hysteresis by examining whether lagged unemployment enters a standard Phillips-curve ...
Working Paper
Technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization
This paper examines the relationships between technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization. Recent technological changes have increased the flexibility of relationships between inputs and outputs in manufacturing, which may have eroded the predictive value of the utilization rate. This paper considers how technology might be expected to affect utilization. We show that recent changes could either lower average utilization by making it cheaper to hold excess capacity, or raise utilization by making further changes in capacity less costly and time-consuming. We then examine the ...
Journal Article
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Recent Developments and the 1999 Revision
In late 1999, the Federal Reserve published revised measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 through October 1 999. The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series, including computer and office equipment and motor vehicles. The new source data are for recent years, primarily from 1997 on, and the modified methods affect data beginning in 1992. The production index for the third quarter ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2003 annual revision
In late 2003, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its measures of industrial, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to September 2003. The changes are generally small and principally affect data from 2000 to the present. ; Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, industrial output is now reported to have increased at a slower rate in 2000 and to have contracted a bit more slowly in 2001 than reported earlier. The changes to total industrial production in other years are slight. The revision still places the most recent peak in ...
Discussion Paper
Annual Data on Investment and Capital Stocks
As part of the estimation of capacity for publication of its G.17 statistical release on industrial production and capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve Board produces annual information on the real capital stock and real investment for detailed industries within the manufacturing sector.