Discussion Paper
Looking for Shortages of Skilled Labor in the Manufacturing Sector
Stahl, Jessica C.; Morin, Norman J. (2013-09-26)
Anecdotal reports have suggested that some firms have struggled to find sufficient numbers of skilled workers.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2013-09-26-1

Journal Article
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Recent Developments and the 1999 Revision
Gilbert, Charles; Raddock, Richard D.; Morin, Norman J. (2000-03)
In late 1999, the Federal Reserve published revised measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 through October 1 999. The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series, including computer and office equipment and motor vehicles. The new source data are for recent years, primarily from 1997 on, and the modified methods affect data beginning in 1992. The production index for the third quarter ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 86 , Issue 3 , Pages pp. 188-205

Working Paper
Technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization
Starr-McCluer, Martha; Bansak, Cynthia; Morin, Norman J. (2004)
This paper examines the relationships between technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization. Recent technological changes have increased the flexibility of relationships between inputs and outputs in manufacturing, which may have eroded the predictive value of the utilization rate. This paper considers how technology might be expected to affect utilization. We show that recent changes could either lower average utilization by making it cheaper to hold excess capacity, or raise utilization by making further changes in capacity less costly and time-consuming. We then examine the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-30

Discussion Paper
Residual Seasonality in GDP
Gilbert, Charles E.; Morin, Norman J.; Paciorek, Andrew D.; Sahm, Claudia R. (2015-05-14)
With a second year in a row of unusually weak first-quarter growth, some analysts have argued that there may be residual seasonality in the GDP data, that is, a predictable seasonal pattern remains in the published data.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2015-05-14

Discussion Paper
Another Look at Residual Seasonality in GDP
Lengermann, Paul; Morin, Norman J.; Paciorek, Andrew D.; Pinto, Eugénio; Sahm, Claudia R. (2017-07-28)
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, a step down from the 2.3 percent pace in the second half of last year. However, we argue in this note that residual seasonality is unlikely to be the primary reason for the slowdown in first-quarter growth this year.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-07-28

Working Paper
Diverging measures of capacity utilization: an explanation
Stevens, John J.; Morin, Norman J. (2004)
In the wake of the recent recovery in manufacturing production, the capacity utilization rates published by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) have rebounded much more slowly than those published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). As a result, some observers have speculated that the manufacturing sector may have considerably less slack than is indicated by the FRB measures. Our view is that the two characterizations of manufacturing slack are not as incongruent as they first appear. This paper discusses the practical and conceptual differences between these measures of capacity ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-58

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2003 annual revision
Morin, Norman J.; Bayard, Kimberly (2004-01)
In late 2003, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its measures of industrial, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to September 2003. The changes are generally small and principally affect data from 2000 to the present. ; Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, industrial output is now reported to have increased at a slower rate in 2000 and to have contracted a bit more slowly in 2001 than reported earlier. The changes to total industrial production in other years are slight. The revision still places the most recent peak in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 90 , Issue Win

Working Paper
Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?
Roberts, John M.; Morin, Norman J. (1999)
We look for evidence of "hysteresis" in the U.S. unemployment rate - that is, that current labor market outcomes affect the future equilibrium level of the unemployment rate. We first examine (using a variety of econometric tests for unit roots) whether the unemployment rate tends to come back to a long-run average over time. On balance, our results suggest that the unemployment rate tends to return to a long-run value, ruling out the possibility of permanent hysteresis. We look for evidence of temporary hysteresis by examining whether lagged unemployment enters a standard Phillips-curve ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-56