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Journal Article
What explains capital flows?
Journal Article
Financial crises in emerging markets
This Economic Letter briefly reviews 11 papers that provide analytical perspectives and new empirical evidence on the causes of these crises as well as the appropriate policy responses. These papers, prepared for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco?s Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, have been collected in Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (edited by R. Glick, R. Moreno, and M. Spiegel), published in 2001 by Cambridge University Press.
Working Paper
Money and credit, competitiveness, and currency crises in Asia and Latin America
This paper analyzes the role of money, credit, trade and competitiveness variables in signaling currency crises in a sample of East Asian and Latin American countries over the period 1972:01 - 1997:10. Bivariate tests suggest that money and credit, as well as trade and competitiveness variables, appear to behave differently around crisis episodes than they do during periods of tranquility, suggesting that they may help signal currency crises. In multivariate probit regressions, which allow for the identification of marginal contributions of individual variables, reductions in real domestic ...
Working Paper
Is money still useful for policy in East Asia?
Since the East Asian crises of 1997, a number of East Asian economies have allowed greater exchange rate flexibility and abandoned monetary targets in favor of inflation targeting, apparently because the perceived usefulness of money as a predictor of inflation, i.e. the information content of money, has fallen. In this paper, we discuss factors that are likely to have influenced the stability of the relationship between money and inflation, particularly in the 1990s, and then assess this relationship in a set of East Asian economies. We focus on (1) the stability of the behavior of the ...
Journal Article
Did a boom in money and credit precede east Asia's recent currency crisis?
This paper assesses the relationship between money and credit and episodes of sharp depreciation in East Asia by: (i) examining the growth rates of money and credit variables around depreciation episodes; (ii) estimating the impact of money and credit variables on the probability of a sharp depreciation episode using logit models; (iii) evaluating the signals contained in money and credit variables prior to episodes of sharp currency depreciation. ; Reserve money grew rapidly prior to the 1997 currency crisis in East Asia. However, signs of a money or credit boom based on other indicators ...
Journal Article
East Asia: recovery and restructuring
Journal Article
Monetary control without a central bank: the case of Hong Kong
Working Paper
Location and the growth of nations
Does a country's (long-term) growth depend upon what happens in countries that are nearby? Such linkages could occur for a variety of reasons, including demand and technology spillovers. We present a series of tests to determine the existence of such relationships and the forms that they might take. We find that a country's growth rate is closely related to that of nearby countries, and show that this correlation reflects more that the existence of common shocks. Trade alone does not appear responsible for these linkages either. In addition, we find that being near a large market ...
Journal Article
Lessons from Thailand