Search Results
Working Paper
How little we know about budget policy effects
Conference Paper
Are banking supervisory data useful for macroeconomic forecasts?
Report
The tax cut illusion
Report
Breaking down the barriers to technological progress: how U.S. policy can promote higher economic growth
1996 Annual Report essay
Report
The high cost of being fair
1993 Annual Report essay
Discussion Paper
Are banking supervisory data useful for macroeconomic forecasts?
Some argue that central banks can improve monetary policy by including confidential supervisory assessments of banking organizations in their forecasts of inflation and unemployment. In this study we examine the extent to which forecasts of these variables would have been improved with the inclusion of supervisory data. We begin by reproducing the earlier results used to support the claim. We critically examine them and extend the analysis from in-sample to out-of-sample testing. Finally, we check the robustness of our findings by extending the analysis period, using a different methodology ...
Journal Article
Minimum wage as price support
Journal Article
The U.S. economy in 1989 and 1990: walking a fine line
Journal Article
Avoiding significant monetary policy mistakes
We deduce properties of optimal monetary policies based on modern theory and standard empirical findings. In light of this analysis, we examine FOMC policy procedures and conclude that they put too much emphasis on short-term economic stabilization and too little emphasis on longer-term price stability. We propose a form of inflation targeting to address this problem.