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Author:Miller, Preston J. 

Report
The jointly optimal inflation tax, income tax structure, and transfers

The welfare-maximizing income tax structure, rate of money creation, and amounts of intergenerational transfers are jointly determined for given rates of government consumption. When government consumption is zero, it is found for the parameter values examined that the income tax structure is progressive, the rate of money change is negative, and positive transfers are made to the old. As government consumption increases, the tax structure's progressivity declines and turns increasingly regressive, the rate of money change rises, and transfers decrease. It is found that the bulk of the ...
Staff Report , Paper 193

Journal Article
TIP: the wrong way to fight inflation

Quarterly Review , Volume 2 , Issue Spr

Journal Article
The right way to price Federal Reserve services

Quarterly Review , Volume 1 , Issue Sum

Report
The CBO's policy analysis: an unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory

The analyses of fiscal and monetary policies that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides Congress tend to be biased, encouraging the use of activist stabilization policies. The CBO?s virtual neglect of economic uncertainties and its emphasis on very short time horizons make active policies appear much more attractive than its own model implies. Moreover, the CBO?s adoption of the macroeconometric approach fundamentally biases its analyses. Macroeconometric models do not remain invariant to changes in policy rules and are mute on the implications of alternative policies for efficiency ...
Staff Report , Paper 49

Working Paper
The policy procedure of the FOMC: a critique

Working Papers , Paper 63

Journal Article
Guest editorial: We have met the federal government, and the federal government is us

The Region , Volume 16 , Issue Jun , Pages 34-36

Working Paper
A monetarist approach to federal budget control

Working Papers , Paper 210

Journal Article
A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP

This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.
Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Fall , Pages 27-31

Report
How little we know about budget policy effects

Using a simple model, we show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies? findings can be shown to be consistent with either policies mattering or not.
Staff Report , Paper 120

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