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Journal Article
Expanded Unemployment Programs Likely Slowed the Decline in Unemployment Claims During the Pandemic Recovery
The typical Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claimant claimed 9.5 to 11.5 more weeks of benefit payments than an individual claiming through regular state programs.
Working Paper
Redistributive Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies
Government expenditures are pro-cyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is driven by differences in social transfers. Transfers are more counter-cyclical and comprise a larger portion of spending in developed economies compared to emerging. In contrast, government expenditures on goods and services are quite similar across the two. In a small open economy model, we find disparate social transfer policies can account for more than a half of the excess volatility of consumption relative to output in emerging economies. We analyze how ...
Working Paper
Online Job Posts Contain Very Little Wage Information
We characterize the little wage information contained in online job posts. Wage information is rare: only 14% of posts contain any information. Of these, wage ranges are more common than point wages, and are wide on average, spanning 28% of the midpoint (e.g. $32,000-$42,000/yr). Posted wages are highly selected in low income occupations: 40% higher than wages of employed workers. High wage firms are more opaque, with more and wider ranges. We find zero correlation between wage information and local labor market tightness. We provide an example of bias in econometric inference that worsens as ...
Working Paper
Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. ...
Working Paper
Assessing Maximum Employment
We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of job vacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocks affect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, ...
Working Paper
Assessing Maximum Employment
We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of job vacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocks affect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, ...
Working Paper
Online Appendix: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
This online appendix accompanies Institute Working Paper 101: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy.
Remote Work Buoyed Employment for Those Vulnerable to Severe COVID-19
In 2020, workers at risk for severe COVID-19 illness didn’t experience a sharper drop in labor participation than nonvulnerable workers.
Working Paper
Expanding Unemployment Insurance Coverage
This paper develops a quantitative framework to study the impact of Unemployment Insurance (UI) expansions to workers earning below eligibility thresholds. A model of how UI affects welfare and labor supply is developed and calibrated with microeconomic data, including consumption. The model predicts that the current ineligible would choose to stay on UI longer than the current eligible and the margins of why this is the case are quantified. The model is applied to the Great Recession by identifying ineligible workers in the data using machine learning and to an actual expansion during ...