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Briefing
Inflation expectations: their sources and effects
Shocks to the macroeconomy can affect the public's expectations about inflation. But if the Federal Reserve monitors those expectations carefully and vigilantly pursues price stability, it can establish credibility and keep inflation in check.
Journal Article
A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function
Journal Article
An error-correction model of the long-term bond rate
Journal Article
On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model
Using a VAR model that includes a survey measure of expected inflation, this article investigates the responses of expected inflation to temporary shocks to macroeconomic variables during three sample periods, 1953:1--1979:1, 1979:2--2001:1, and 1985:1--2007:1. Shocks to actual inflation, commodity prices, and expected inflation itself have been three major sources of movement in expected inflation, together explaining over 80 percent of the variability in expected inflation. Positive shocks to actual inflation, commodity prices, and expected inflation itself lead to increases in expected ...
Journal Article
A review of the recent behavior of M2 demand
Journal Article
Unit labor costs and the price level
Journal Article
The bond rate and actual future inflation