Search Results
Discussion Paper
Monetary Policy and Employment
In its ?Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,? the Federal Open Market Committee (Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2014) summarizes its two main objectives: to mitigate (i) deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and (ii) deviations of employment from the Federal Open Market Committee?s assessment of its maximum level. In the case of employment, the statement acknowledges that ?the maximum level ... is largely determined by nonmonetary factors,? which is why the FOMC sets no fixed goal for the employment level. It instead depends on the Committee?s ...
Working Paper
Openness, technology capital, and development
A framework is developed with what we call technology capital. A country is a measure of locations. Absent policy constraints, a firm owning a unit of technology capital can produce the composite output good using the unit of technology capital at as many locations as it chooses. But it can operate only one operation at a given location, so the number of locations is what constrains the number of units it operates using this unit of technology capital. If it has two units of technology capital, it can operate twice as many operations at every location. In this paper, aggregation is carried ...
Journal Article
Changes in hours worked, 1950?2000
This article describes changes in the number of average weekly hours of market work per person in the United States since World War II. Overall, this number has been roughly constant; for various groups, however, it has shifted dramatically - from males to females, from older people to younger people, and from single- to married-person households. The article provides a detailed look at how the lifetime pattern of work hours has changed since 1950 for different demographic groups. This article also documents several factors that lead to the reallocation of hours worked across groups: ...
Journal Article
Is the stock market overvalued?
The value of U.S. corporate equity in the first half of 2000 was close to 1.8 times U.S. gross national product (GNP). Some stock market analysts have argued that the market is overvalued at this level. We use a growth model with an explicit corporate sector and find that the market is correctly valued. In theory, the market value of equity plus debt liabilities should equal the value of productive assets plus debt assets. Since the net value of debt is currently low, the market value of equity should be approximately equal to the market value of productive assets. We find that the market ...
Report
Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies
This paper catalogues formulas that are useful for estimating dynamic linear economic models. We describe algorithms for computing equilibria of an economic model and for recursively computing a Gaussian likelihood function and its gradient with respect to parameters. We display an application to Rosen, Murphy, and Scheinkman's (1994) model of cattle cycles.
Report
Quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China
Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Report
Technology capital and the U.S. current account
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates the return on investments of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. multinational companies over the period 1982?2006 averaged 9.4 percent annually after taxes; U.S. subsidiaries of foreign multinationals averaged only 3.2 percent. Two factors distort BEA returns: technology capital and plant-specific intangible capital. Technology capital is accumulated know-how from intangible investments in R&D, brands, and organizations that can be used in foreign and domestic locations. Used abroad, it generates profits for foreign subsidiaries with no foreign ...
Discussion Paper
The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation
Journal Article
A defense of AK growth models
AK growth models predict that permanent changes in government policies affecting investment rates should lead to permanent changes in a country?s GDP growth. Charles Jones (1995) sees no evidence for this prediction in data for 15 OECD countries after World War II: rates of investment, especially for equipment, have risen while GDP growth rates have not. This article provides evidence supporting the AK models? prediction. Data back to the 19th century show a strong positive relationship between investment rates and growth rates and short-lived deviations from trends. A strong positive ...
Report
Technical appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China
Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...