Journal Article
Multifamily Housing Shows Strong Growth, Leading to Bubble Fears
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Gascon, Charles S. (2017)
Of all the major commercial real estate categories, multifamily housing has strengthened the most since the last recession. It has shown so much growth that some are worried a bubble is forming.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark; Cooke, Diana A. (2015-04)
Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Journal Article
Is Inflation Running Hot or Cold?
Ricketts, Lowell R.; McGillicuddy, Joseph (2015)
Changes in the aggregate price level can be traced back to changes in the underlying components.
Economic Synopses , Issue 16

Journal Article
Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations: Is There a Link?
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Badel, Alejandro (2015-07)
Oil prices and inflation expectations sometimes move in tandem. A close look at three types of shocks to oil prices suggests that not all shocks relate to inflation expectations in the same manner.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Crews, Jonas C.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 3, Price Gaps
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Karson, Evan; Ravikumar, B. (2018)
In Part 1 ("Divergent Markets") of this series, we argue that the recent divergence in housing supplies likely signals a decline in inventories of lower- and middle-tier homes nationwide. Part 2 ("Rental Demand") discusses the role that rental-market developments have played in exacerbating this shortage. In this third and final essay, we document another trend that might have contributed to the scarcity of lower- and middle-tier homes: the widening price gaps between different housing tiers.
Economic Synopses , Issue 11 , Pages 1-2

Working Paper
An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts
McGillicuddy, Joseph; McCracken, Michael W. (2017-11-01)
When constructing unconditional point forecasts, both direct- and iterated-multistep (DMS and IMS) approaches are common. However, in the context of producing conditional forecasts, IMS approaches based on vector autoregressions (VAR) are far more common than simpler DMS models. This is despite the fact that there are theoretical reasons to believe that DMS models are more robust to misspecification than are IMS models. In the context of unconditional forecasts, Marcellino, Stock, and Watson (MSW, 2006) investigate the empirical relevance of these theories. In this paper, we extend that work ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-40

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the St. Louis zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-04)
Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Journal Article
Some Sectors Are Strong in Cape Girardeau, but Recovery from Recession Remains Elusive
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Gascon, Charles S. (2016-04)
This small MSA scores well on educational attainment, cost of living, employment in health care services and in other categories. Still, output and job growth are relatively slow.
The Regional Economist , Issue April

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q