Search Results
Journal Article
Some Sectors Are Strong in Cape Girardeau, but Recovery from Recession Remains Elusive
This small MSA scores well on educational attainment, cost of living, employment in health care services and in other categories. Still, output and job growth are relatively slow.
Journal Article
Multifamily Housing Shows Strong Growth, Leading to Bubble Fears
Of all the major commercial real estate categories, multifamily housing has strengthened the most since the last recession. It has shown so much growth that some are worried a bubble is forming.
Journal Article
Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations: Is There a Link?
Oil prices and inflation expectations sometimes move in tandem. A close look at three types of shocks to oil prices suggests that not all shocks relate to inflation expectations in the same manner.
Journal Article
The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 3, Price Gaps
In Part 1 ("Divergent Markets") of this series, we argue that the recent divergence in housing supplies likely signals a decline in inventories of lower- and middle-tier homes nationwide. Part 2 ("Rental Demand") discusses the role that rental-market developments have played in exacerbating this shortage. In this third and final essay, we document another trend that might have contributed to the scarcity of lower- and middle-tier homes: the widening price gaps between different housing tiers.
Journal Article
The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 2, Rental Demand
In Part 1 ("Divergent Markets") of this three-part series, we document that the recent divergence in inventories of new and existing homes seems to reflect a scarcity of lower- and middle-tier homes. We now examine one potential factor contributing to this shortage: rental demand.
Journal Article
The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 1, Divergent Markets
Over the past several months, the pace of U.S. home sales has shown few signs of growth, and as of February 2018, overall home sales were only slightly higher compared with year-ago levels.
Working Paper
Binary Conditional Forecasts
While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting binary variables. We use the Qual-VAR [Dueker (2005)], whose joint VAR-probit structure allows us to form conditional forecasts of the latent variable which can then be used to form probabilistic forecasts of the binary variable. We apply ...
Working Paper
Binary Conditional Forecasts
While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting binary variables. We use the Qual-VAR [Dueker (2005)], whose joint VAR-probit structure allows us to form conditional forecasts of the latent variable which can then be used to form probabilistic forecasts of the binary variable. We apply ...
Working Paper
An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts
When constructing unconditional point forecasts, both direct- and iterated-multistep (DMS and IMS) approaches are common. However, in the context of producing conditional forecasts, IMS approaches based on vector autoregressions (VAR) are far more common than simpler DMS models. This is despite the fact that there are theoretical reasons to believe that DMS models are more robust to misspecification than are IMS models. In the context of unconditional forecasts, Marcellino, Stock, and Watson (MSW, 2006) investigate the empirical relevance of these theories. In this paper, we extend that work ...
Journal Article
Is Inflation Running Hot or Cold?
Changes in the aggregate price level can be traced back to changes in the underlying components.