Journal Article
Some Sectors Are Strong in Cape Girardeau, but Recovery from Recession Remains Elusive
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Gascon, Charles S. (2016-04)
This small MSA scores well on educational attainment, cost of living, employment in health care services and in other categories. Still, output and job growth are relatively slow.
The Regional Economist , Issue April

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the St. Louis zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand Behind the Slump?
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Badel, Alejandro (2015)
A standard decomposition suggests the role of oil supply (understood as the current physical availability of crude) has been small.
Economic Synopses , Issue 8

Journal Article
Multifamily Housing Shows Strong Growth, Leading to Bubble Fears
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Gascon, Charles S. (2017)
Of all the major commercial real estate categories, multifamily housing has strengthened the most since the last recession. It has shown so much growth that some are worried a bubble is forming.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark; Cooke, Diana A. (2015-04)
Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Working Paper
Binary Conditional Forecasts
McCracken, Michael W.; Owyang, Michael T.; McGillicuddy, Joseph (2019-10-01)
While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting binary variables. We use the Qual-VAR [Dueker (2005)], whose joint VAR-probit structure allows us to form conditional forecasts of the latent variable which can then be used to form probabilistic forecasts of the binary variable. We apply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-29

Journal Article
Is Inflation Running Hot or Cold?
Ricketts, Lowell R.; McGillicuddy, Joseph (2015)
Changes in the aggregate price level can be traced back to changes in the underlying components.
Economic Synopses , Issue 16

Journal Article
Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations: Is There a Link?
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Badel, Alejandro (2015-07)
Oil prices and inflation expectations sometimes move in tandem. A close look at three types of shocks to oil prices suggests that not all shocks relate to inflation expectations in the same manner.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Crews, Jonas C.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q