Search Results
Working Paper
Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?
Despite the recent patch of sluggish growth, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One popular explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results, however, indicate that the changes in inventory dynamics since the mid-1980s played a reinforcing---rather than a leading---role in the volatility reduction. Movements in the volatility of manufacturing output over the past three decades almost entirely reflect changes in the variability of the growth ...
Working Paper
Microeconomic inventory adjustment: evidence from U.S. firm-level data
We examine inventory adjustment in the U.S. manufacturing sector using quarterly firm-level data over the period 1978-97. Our evidence indicates that the inventory investment process is nonlinear and asymmetric, results consistent with a nonconvex adjustment cost structure. The inventory adjustment process differs over the business cycle: for a given level of excess inventories, firms disinvest more in recessions than they do in expansions. The inventory adjustment process has changed little between the 1980s and 1990s, suggesting that recent advances in inventory control have had little ...
Conference Paper
Housing activity, home values, and consumer spending
The current expansion has seen record-high levels of transactions in housing, extraordinary growth in the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, and large increases in the amount of funds realized from the refinancing of mortgage debt. Many analysts thus have pointed to the strong housing market and rising home prices as a major pillar supporting recent economic growth and have expressed concern that a contraction in housing activity and values could pose a significant risk to consumer spending and real economic growth. This paper explores the channels by which the housing market may ...
Journal Article
Equipment expenditures since 1995: the boom and the bust
Business investment in equipment surged in the 1990s, then fell back sharply after mid-2000. A popular explanation of these trends holds that the soaring stock market and declining computer prices of the last decade encouraged excess investment, setting the stage for the retrenchment that followed. Yet an analysis of the factors underlying investment suggests that capital spending patterns in the late 1990s would have been quite similar had stock values and equipment prices remained near their recent historical averages.
Journal Article
Debt, delinquencies, and consumer spending
The sharp rise in household debt and delinquency rates over the last year has led to speculation that consumers will soon revert to more cautious spending behavior. Yet an analysis of the past relationship between household liabilities and expenditures provides little support for this view.
Journal Article
The impact of individual retirement accounts on savings
Bills to expand individual retirement accounts have been introduced in both houses of Congress this year. While proponents argue that these accounts can help reverse the nation's declining saving rate, recent economic research suggests that the effect of the accounts on savings is in fact quite small.
Journal Article
What investment patterns across equipment and industries tell us about the recent investment boom and bust
A study of capital expenditure trends identifies investment in information technology as a major factor in the 1990s boom and subsequent bust. Spending on computers and software, fueled by Y2K preparations and the rise of the Internet, drove investment growth in the late 1990s but slowed in 2000, while overly optimistic profit expectations by communications industries likely prompted an unsustainable investment surge in 2000.
Journal Article
Are home prices the next "bubble"?
The strong rise in home prices since the mid-1990s has raised concerns over a possible bubble in the housing market and the effect of a sharp price decline on the U.S. economy. This article assesses two measures frequently cited to support a bubble-the rising price-to-income ratio and the declining rent-to-price ratio-and finds the measures to be flawed and the conclusions drawn from them unpersuasive. In particular, the measures do not fully account for the effects of declining nominal mortgage interest rates and fail to use appropriate home price indexes. The authors also estimate a ...
Journal Article
National and regional factors in the metropolitan economy
The connections between broad economic indicators in the metropolitan region and their national counterparts are examined by the authors. The authors show that over the last seven years, employment growth has been poor in both absolute terms and relative to the nation, possibly indicating a region in decline. However, they note that the region's income growth has been considerably better than its employment growth, suggesting a region whose goods and services remain in healthy demand.
Journal Article
Monetary policy transmission to residential investment
Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission