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Journal Article
The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
Matthes, Christian; Seitelman, Lily; Foerster, Andrew (2020-08-03)
Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 21 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information
Matthes, Christian; Mertens, Elmar; Lubik, Thomas A. (2019-10-08)
We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets: The fully informed agents know the structure of the model and observe histories of all exogenous and endogenous variables. The less informed agents observe only a strict subset of the full information set. All types of agents form expectations rationally, but agents with limited information need to solve a dynamic signal extraction problem to gather information about the variables they do not observe. We show that for parameter values that imply a unique equilibrium under full ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-17

Journal Article
Can Government Spending Help to Escape Recessions?
Matthes, Christian; Barnichon, Regis; Debortoli, Davide (2021-02-01)
A key to designing fiscal policy is understanding how government purchases affect economic output overall. Research suggests that expanding government spending is not very effective at stimulating an economy in normal times. However, in deep downturns when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound, public spending is more potent and can become an effective way to escape a recession.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 02 , Pages 01-05

Briefing
Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?
Barnichon, Regis; Matthes, Christian; Sablik, Timothy (2017-03)
The Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to stimulate the economy when unemployment is high and to rein in inflationary pressures when the economy is overheating. However, evidence suggests that these policy stances have unequal effects. Contractionary monetary shocks raise unemployment more strongly than expansionary shocks lower it.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue March

Working Paper
Measurement Errors and Monetary Policy: Then and Now
Matthes, Christian; Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan; Wang, Mu-Chun (2015-11-05)
Should policymakers and applied macroeconomists worry about the difference between real-time and final data? We tackle this question by using a VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to show that the distinctionbetween real-time data and final data matters for the impact of monetary policy shocks: The impact on final data is substantially and systematically different (in particular, larger in magnitude for different measures of real activity) from theimpact on real-time data. These differences have persisted over the last 40 years and should be taken into account when ...
Working Paper , Paper 15-13

Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy
Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan (2011-08-11)
Working Paper , Paper 21-14

Briefing
Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty
Matthes, Christian; Sablik, Timothy (2014-01)
In response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-09, the federal government enacted a number of emergency fiscal policies intended to aid recovery. These included short-term stimulus measures, such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and temporary tax reductions, such as the payroll tax cut in 2010. However, the unconventional and transitory nature of these fiscal policies may have contributed to greater economic uncertainty. Given the slow recovery that has followed the recession, economists are studying how such uncertainty might impact growth.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Jan

Working Paper
A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models
Matthes, Christian; Canova, Fabio (2018-07-23)
We describe how to use the composite likelihood to ameliorate estimation, computational, and inferential problems in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We present a number of situations where the methodology has the potential to resolve well-known problems. In each case we consider, we provide an example to illustrate how the approach works and its properties in practice.
Working Paper , Paper 18-12

Briefing
Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches
Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian (2015-10)
The natural rate of interest is a key concept in monetary economics because its level relative to the real rate of interest allows economists to assess the stance of monetary policy. However, the natural rate of interest cannot be observed; it must be calculated using identifying assumptions. This Economic Brief compares the popular Laubach-Williams approach to calculating the natural rate with an alternative method that imposes fewer theoretical restrictions. Both approaches indicate that the natural rate has been above the real rate for a long time.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Oct

Briefing
Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles
Matthes, Christian; Lubik, Thomas A.; Haltom, Renee Courtois; Verona, Fabio (2019-04)
When analyzing macroeconomic data, it helps to separate longer-term trends from business cycle fluctuations, which may have distinct causes and respond differently to policy. This Economic Brief presents research that uses a novel methodology to establish stylized facts for four key macroeconomic variables for cycles of different durations. This brief makes the case that research and policy should focus on four aspects of economic fluctuations: a short-term component (cycles of less than two years), a business cycle component (cycles between two and eight years), a medium-term component ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue April , Pages 1-8

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