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The Changing Composition of Disability among America’s Workers
Employment has increased at a higher rate among the disabled population than the broader population since the onset of COVID-19. Which types of disabilities are associated with the recent increase?
Journal Article
Labor Market Conditions Have Eased, but Why? A State-Level View
An analysis examines how changes in labor supply and labor demand contributed to loosening state and national job market conditions in 2023.
Eighth District Businesses Report Moderating Inflationary Pressures
A recent survey of firms in the Eighth District suggests that consumer price growth is expected to keep slowing in 2024, though most firms also reported that they still have at least some ability to pass on higher costs.
Professional Forecasters’ Past Performance and the 2025 Economic Outlook
A survey shows professional forecasters expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2025. But how accurate have their predictions been since 1993?
Working Paper
The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that ...
Working Paper
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
What’s Behind the Recent Slump in Consumer Sentiment?
Though some indicators point to a strong economy, consumer sentiment has slumped. An analysis suggests this may be due to weaker growth in real personal income.
Working Paper
The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that ...
Quantifying the Beige Book’s “Soft” Data
Some economists believe anecdotal findings in the Beige Book are inferior to hard economic data. This analysis suggests the report’s ‘soft’ content is actually quite firm.
Journal Article
Historical Disinflation Episodes: Which Falls First, Goods or Services?
What does it take to bring inflation back down to target? Historically, goods inflation slows first, followed by a longer period in which services inflation slows.