Search Results
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Regional Trends in Inflation and Nominal Wages
Because of local variations in inflation and nominal wage growth, regional real wage gains can differ, according to an analysis of the largest U.S. cities.
Journal Article
Where Are Labor Markets the Tightest? A Tale of the 100 Largest US Cities
How does labor market tightness vary across the US, and how have labor markets changed since the pandemic? The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a common measure.
Job Mobility Patterns and Lifetime Earnings Disparities among Male Workers
Examining long-term wage growth of male workers, an analysis finds that job mobility can provide insights into the disparities in lifetime earnings distribution.
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Are State Economic Conditions a Harbinger of a National Recession?
An analysis of state-level economic growth suggests that a certain number of contracting state economies could signal the start of a national recession.
Revisiting Wage Growth in 2023
An analysis finds that nominal wage growth peaked in 2022. In 2023, wages increased but at a slower rate, and growth has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Unemployment and Wage Inflation: Recent Findings Using State Data
Both state-level data and individual-level data suggest that periods with low unemployment rates are also periods with more rapid wage growth, an analysis finds.
Why Do WFH Workers Move?
Job opportunities have been a key reason why workers move to another state. What drives interstate migration for remote workers, who can do their jobs from anywhere?
Journal Article
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro 2026, we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve tightening ...