Search Results
Discussion Paper
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers' remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter's economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics. Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain this ...
Discussion Paper
COVID-19 International Evidence: Some Notable Puzzles
This article uses international evidence to argue that we still have limited knowledge about the efficacy of widely used preventive actions, such as social distancing and face masks, in containing the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus. I document three puzzles. One, Peru enacted unprecedented lockdowns early in the pandemic, which led to a record contraction in economic activity. The country’s residents also adopted near-universal face mask usage. None of these actions, however, prevented Peru from experiencing the world’s highest per capita mortality rate from the virus. Second, ...
Discussion Paper
Money Aggregates, Debt, Pent-Up Demand, and Inflation: Evidence from WWII
The COVID-19 pandemic produced a massive decline in U.S. consumption in 2020 and swift fiscal and monetary responses. After growing at a rather steady 5 percent rate for decades, the moneysupply (M2) increased 25 percent over the past year alongside unprecedented fiscal support, raising some inflationary concerns. Concurrent with the reopening of the economy as vaccines roll out, this article derives some lessons from the U.S. experience during and after WWII. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 40 percent to 110 percent because of the war effort. Most of it was financed by Fed debt ...
Discussion Paper
Money Aggregates, Debt, Pent-Up Demand, and Inflation: Evidence from WWII
The COVID-19 pandemic produced a massive decline in U.S. consumption in 2020 and swiftfiscal and monetary responses. After growing at a rather steady 5 percent rate for decades, the moneysupply (M2) increased 25 percent over the past year alongside unprecedented fiscal support, raisingsome inflationary concerns. Concurrent with the reopening of the economy as vaccines roll out, thisarticle derives some lessons from the U.S. experience during and after WWII. The debt-to-GDP ratioincreased from 40 percent to 110 percent because of the war effort. Most of it was financed by Fed debtpurchases, ...
Journal Article
When Tight Is Too Tight: The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Post-World War II Spike in Inflation
With the end of World War II, the massive expansion of defense spending came to a halt, and the money supply financing it quickly stabilized. However, the real money supply declined further with the transitory inflationary upswing of 1946–47, which fueled deflationary expectations, passively pushing up real interest rates and triggering the 1949 recession. We compare the Fed’s current stance to this historical episode, concluding that the ongoing tightening is already sufficient to normalize monetary conditions to prepandemic trends. This article also discusses how fiscal policy might ...
Journal Article
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers’ remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter’s economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics.Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain ...
Journal Article
COVID-19 International Evidence: Some Notable Puzzles
This article uses international evidence to argue that we still have limited knowledge about the efficacy of widely used preventive actions, such as social distancing and face masks, in containing the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus. I document three puzzles. One, Peru enacted unprecedented lockdowns early in the pandemic, which led to a record contraction in economic activity. The country’s residents also adopted near-universal face mask usage. None of these actions, however, prevented Peru from experiencing the world’s highest per capita mortality rate from the virus. Second, ...
Journal Article
Money Aggregates, Debt, Pent-Up Demand, and Inflation: Evidence from WWII
The COVID-19 pandemic produced a massive decline in U.S. consumption in 2020 and swift fiscal and monetary policy responses. After growing at a rather steady 5 percent rate for decades, the money supply (M2) increased 25 percent over the past year alongside unprecedented fiscal support, raising some inflation concerns. Concurrent with the reopening of the economy as vaccines roll out, this article derives some lessons from the U.S. experience during and after WWII. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 40 percent to 110 percent because of the war effort. Most of it was financed by Fed debt ...
Journal Article
Financial development, remittances, and real exchange rate appreciation
For developing countries, remittances are an important and expanding source of capital, equivalent to two-thirds of overall foreign direct investment and nearly 2 percent of gross domestic product. ; This article examines the relationship between remittance inflows, financial sector development, and the real exchange rate. The authors test whether financial sector development can prevent appreciation of the real exchange rate. In particular, they show that well-developed financial sectors can more effectively channel remittances into investment opportunities. ; Using panel data for 109 ...
Journal Article
Remittances ebb and flow with the immigration tide
Many people in developing countries rely on the remittance payments sent back home by family members working abroad. An economic slowdown in the United States has dampened the growth of this payment method. Changing migration patterns, economic developments, and new technologies and policies are affecting how - and how many - remittances are sent abroad.