Search Results
Briefing
Business Cycles: Is the Current Economic Environment Different?
Post-1988 unemployment cycles are significantly longer than earlier ones: 18.4 months for pre-1988 cycles, and 30 months for post-1988.The current cycle has been especially gradual, with unemployment rising steadily for 33 months — the longest on record without a recession following.In particular, the current cycle is atypical in that the sustained increase in unemployment occurs while GDP growth is, instead, strongly positive.
Briefing
Human Capital Investment: Would Higher-Order Skills Help Disconnected Youth?
Human capital investments remain cost-effective well into young adulthood.A multidimensional approach to human capital development emphasizes developing self-reflection abilities and strategic thinking skills alongside traditional academic knowledge.Higher-order skills — like teamwork, critical thinking and self-control — offer high returns for disconnected youth and are well-compensated in the labor market.
Briefing
Understanding the Lack of Skill Specialization in Peru
Jobs in Peru use a larger number of skills than comparable jobs in the U.S. This lack of specialization is consistent with firms’ hiring of "toderos" (workers with many skills, do-it-alls), given the high levels of worker reallocation.Labor markets in poorer countries are characterized by higher worker reallocation rates.1 In richer economies, a dynamic labor market that seamlessly reallocates workers to jobs goes hand in hand with robust productivity growth and sustained income growth.2 Instead, in poorer countries, the brisk pace of reallocation is accompanied by high unemployment and ...
Briefing
Public and Private Labor Market Data: Insights From the Government Shutdown
Private and public data are complements, not substitutes: Private sources offer speed and granularity, while government surveys provide representative benchmarks.Different data sources can measure similar but subtlety different things. For instance, JOLTS, ADP, RPLS and Gusto all measure "employment" but define it in different ways.These differences can lead to very different measurements, illustrated by two private data sources diverging by 100,000 jobs during the shutdown.
Briefing
Career Progressions and Wage Growth: Decreasing the Gap Between Richer and Poorer Workers
In our previous article, we explored the contribution of different career dynamics to the earnings gap between poorer and richer workers. We emphasized how poorer workers do not lack opportunities to change jobs, as they have high job mobility rates. Thus, they potentially could work at increasingly better-paying firms but seldom do so in practice. Looking at previous economic literature — including a leading framework for the labor market: the job ladder model — we argued that postulating a common job ladder for both poorer and richer workers is not supported by the data. In this ...
Briefing
Changing Recruiting Practices and Methods in the Tight Labor Market
The unusually tight labor market has generated a wide range of challenges for employers attempting to hire workers. A survey conducted jointly by the Richmond Fed and the Richmond Society for Human Resources Management in June 2022 continues our series on recruiting methods and practices. There is little doubt that recruiting effort for each open position has intensified in the last year, and firms have had to engage new and different techniques to attract candidates and fill open positions.
Working Paper
Minority Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
Our paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races. The cyclical volatility of real income differs significantly for households of different races and income levels, reflecting differential exposure to fluctuations in employment and consumer prices. All Black households are disproportionately affected by employment fluctuations, whereas price volatility is only particularly pronounced for Black households with income above the national median. The latter face 40 percent higher price volatility than both poorer households of the same race and ...
Briefing
What Unemployment Insurance Claims Can — and Cannot — Tell Us
Fewer people are losing their jobs: New claims for unemployment benefits are down, while the workforce covered by unemployment benefits has grown by 13 million since 2022.People aren't leaving the benefit rolls faster: The weekly exit rate has been flat near 11.7 percent since early 2025 — which is a quarter below its 2022 level — and a typical insurance spell now runs 8.2 weeks versus 6.5 weeks in 2022.The recent decline in continuing claims is not necessarily evidence of a recovering labor market. It is explained almost entirely by fewer arrivals, not faster exits. And the share of ...
Briefing
Worker Types, AI Exposure and the Recent Decline in Job-Finding Rates
The recent decline in unemployment outflow rates is concentrated among specific groups of workers, rather than spread evenly across the labor force.Strongly attached workers — those with stable employment histories — have experienced the largest decline in job-finding rates.Workers in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence have seen larger declines in job-finding rates, pointing to AI affecting the labor market.