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Working Paper
The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options
Using recently available daily S&P 500 index option expirations, we examine the ex ante pricing of uncertainty surrounding key economic releases and the determinants of risk premia associated with these releases. The cost of insurance against price, variance, and downside risk is higher for options that span U.S. CPI, FOMC, Nonfarm Payroll, and GDP releases compared to neighboring expirations. We calculate release-driven forward equity and variance risk premia and find that premia vary considerably across economic releases and increase with risk aversion as well as with monetary policy and ...
Working Paper
Financial Stability Governance and Central Bank Communications
We investigate how central banks' governance frameworks influence their financial stability communication strategies and assess the effectiveness of these strategies in preventing a worsening of financial cycle conditions. We develop a simple conceptual framework of how central banks communicate about financial stability and how communication shapes the evolution of the financial cycle. We apply our framework using data on the governance characteristics of 24 central banks and the sentiment conveyed in their financial stability reports. We find robust evidence that communications by central ...
Working Paper
Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle
This paper presents evidence that the foreign exchange appreciation is predictable by the currency variance risk premium at a medium 6-month horizon and by the stock variance risk premium at a short 1-month horizon. Although currency variance risk premiums are highly correlated with each other over longer horizons, their correlations with stock variance risk premiums are quite low. Interestingly the currency variance risk premium has no predictive power for stock returns. We rationalize these findings in a consumption-based asset pricing model with orthogonal local and global economic ...
Discussion Paper
Central Banks' Financial Stability Communications during the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the implementation of unprecedented policy actions by central banks around the world. Along with the reduction of interest rates and the use of asset purchase and lending programs, central bank communications have been actively deployed as a policy tool.
Working Paper
The variance risk premium around the world
This paper investigates the variance risk premium in an international setting. First, I provide new evidence on the basic stylized facts traditionally documented for the US. I show that while the variance premiums in several other countries are, on average, positive and display significant time variation, they do not predict local equity returns. Then, I extend the domestic model in Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009) to an international setting. In light of the qualitative implications of my model, I provide empirical evidence that the US variance premium outperforms that of all other ...
Discussion Paper
The Global Transmission of Inflation Uncertainty
The COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented disruptions to global supply chains, labor markets, and economic activity, leading to significant volatility in inflation rates worldwide. Not only the level of inflation but the uncertainty about the future path of inflation increased considerably since the onset of the pandemic and have remained elevated until very recently, posing challenges for policymakers and businesses alike. Figure 1 shows a measure of inflation uncertainty proposed in a recent paper by Londono, Ma and Wilson (2024) (LMW hereafter). The intuition behind this measure is that ...
Discussion Paper
2nd Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference
The U.S. dollar plays a central role in the global economy. In addition to being the most widely used currency in foreign exchange transactions, it represents the largest share in official reserves, international debt securities and loans, cross-border payments, and trade invoicing.