Search Results
Journal Article
As the nation's economy goes, so goes Minnesota's
Working Paper
The limits of counter-cyclical monetary policy: an analysis based on optimal control theory and vector autoregressions
Optimal control theory can be combined with the probability structure of a vector autoregression to investigate the tradeoffs available to policymakers. Such an approach obtains results based on a minimal set of assumptions about the economy and the structure of policy actions. This paper takes this approach to analyze the potential effectiveness of countercyclical monetary policy.
Working Paper
The costs of intermediate targeting
Journal Article
How monetary policy in 1985 affects the outlook
Report
A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting
This paper surveys recent issues in macroeconomics from the viewpoint of dynamic economic theory. The need to look beyond demand and supply curves and the insights that come from doing so are emphasized. Examples of issues in debt management and fiscal policy are analyzed.
Journal Article
Building a coherent risk measurement and capital optimisation model for financial firms
This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 5, "International capital allocation at financial institutions." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
Report
Optimal control of the money supply
Using optimal control theory and a vector autoregressive representation of the relationship between money and interest rates, one can derive a feedback control procedure which defines the best possible tradeoff between money supply fluctuations and interest rate volatility and which could be used to reduce both from their current levels.
Report
A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series
This paper describes a technique for distributing quarterly time series across monthly values. The method generalizes an approach described by Fernandez (1981). The paper also presents results of a test of the accuracy of these two approaches and two standard procedures suggested by Chow and Lin (1971).
Report
Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions four years of experience
Replaced by Working Paper 274 (July 1985)