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Working Paper
Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth
Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang (2019-03-21)
We examine the role of demographics and changing industrial policies in ac- counting for the rapid rise in household savings and in per capita output growth in China since the mid-1970s. The demographic changes come from reductions in the fertility rate and increases in the life expectancy, while the industrial policies take many forms. These policies cause important structural changes; first benefiting private labor-intensive firms by incentivizing them to increase their share of employment, and later on benefiting capital-intensive firms resulting in an increasing share of capital devoted ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-21

Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies, and Chinese Economic Growth
Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang (2022-06-27)
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-17

Journal Article
The economics of household leveraging and deleveraging
Li, Wenli; Patwari, Susheela (2012-07)
Since the start of the financial crisis of 2007-09, a historically large number of household loans have become delinquent and residential houses have been foreclosed. This situation, coupled with households actively paying down their debt or cutting down on new borrowing, marked the beginning of household deleveraging. In this article, Wenli Li and Susheela Patwari discuss recent theoretical and empirical work by economists that sheds light on the process of leveraging and deleveraging and that helps to provide answers to a number of questions, such as: What determines when and how much a ...
Business Review , Issue Q3 , Pages 9-17

Working Paper
The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation
Li, Wenli; Kim, You Suk; Fang, Hanming (2015-12-18)
We present a dynamic structural model of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) borrowers making payment decisions taking into account possible consequences of different degrees of delinquency from their lenders. We empirically implement the model using unique data sets that contain information on borrowers' mortgage payment history, their broad balance sheets, and lender responses. Our investigation of the factors that drive borrowers' decisions reveals that subprime ARMs are not all alike. For loans originated in 2004 and 2005, the interest rate resets associated with ARMs, as well as the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-114

Working Paper
The dynamic effects of government spending shocks on employment and work hours
Li, Wenli; Yuan, Mingwei (1998)
In this paper, we analyze the dynamic behavior of employment and hours worked per worker in a stochastic general equilibrium model with a matching mechanism between vacancies and unemployed workers. The model is estimated for the U.S. using the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimation technique. An increase in government spending raises hours worked per worker, and crowds out private consumption due to a negative wealth effect. On the path converging towards the steady state, private consumption is below its long run average and increases, which implies that the interest rate is above ...
Working Paper , Paper 98-09

Working Paper
An anatomy of u.s. Personal bankruptcy under chapter 13
Li, Wenli; Eraslan, Hulya; Koşar, Gizem; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2014-10-29)
We build a structural model of Chapter 13 bankruptcy that captures salient features of personal bankruptcy under Chapter 13. We estimate our model using a novel data set we construct from bankruptcy court dockets recorded in Delaware between 2001 and 2002. Our estimation results highlight the importance of debtor?s choice of repayment plan length on Chapter 13 outcomes under the restrictions imposed by the bankruptcy law. We use the estimated model to conduct policy experiments to evaluate the impact of more stringent provisions of Chapter 13 that impose additional restrictions on the length ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-33

Journal Article
Government loan, guarantee, and grant programs: an evaluation
Li, Wenli (1998-10)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Fall , Pages 25-52

Working Paper
Home production and Social Security reform
Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang (2012)
This paper incorporates home production into a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations with endogenous retirement to study Social Security reforms. As such, the model differentiates both consumption goods and labor effort according to their respective roles in home production and market activities. Using a calibrated model, we find that eliminating the current pay-as-you-go Social Security system has important implications for both labor supply and consumption decisions and that these decisions are influenced by the presence of a home production technology. Comparing our ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-5

Journal Article
To forgive or not to forgive : an analysis of U.S. consumer bankruptcy choices
Li, Wenli (2001-04)
Economic Quarterly , Issue Spr , Pages 1-22

Working Paper
Investigating fluctuations in U.S. manufacturing : what are the direct effects of informational frictions?
Li, Wenli; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2000)
In this paper, we explore how informational frictions in credit markets directly affect U.S. manufacturing fluctuations. Within the context of a dynamic industry model, we propose a strategy for identifying intermediation costs related to informational asymmetries between lenders and borrowers. The analysis suggests that these costs have been steadily falling over the post-war period. We also present evidence that changes in the cost of intermediation should directly affect output, as opposed to just propagating the effects of other shocks. Finally, we find that the relative share of output ...
Working Paper , Paper 00-01

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