Search Results
Journal Article
The persistence of bank profits: what the stock market implies
This paper examines the speed with which abnormal economic profits vanish in the U.S. banking industry. A model is developed to infer expected speeds of profit adjustment from stock market and financial accounting data, deriving the rate of adjustment that is most consistent with observed cross-sectional relationships between bank stock prices and profitability. The model allows for the possibility that reported accounting income may be a biased and noisy signal of economic profit. Estimation is performed using generalized nonlinear least squares on a pooled series of cross sections. The ...
Working Paper
A simple approach to better deposit insurance pricing
Journal Article
Bank capital standards for foreign exchange and other market risks
The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed methods for incorporating consideration of market risks--exchange rate, interest rate, and equity price risks--into risk-based capital standards for banks. This paper shows that the separate and seemingly different proposed approaches to the three sources of risk are consistent with one another, reflecting a single unifying theme. That theme is the measurement of risk through a weighting of two different measures of portfolio size, the gross position and the net position. A simple theoretical model demonstrates that such an approach ...
Working Paper
The persistence of bank profits: what the stock market implies
This paper examines the speed with which abnormal economic profits (that is, profits greater than or less than required to compensate for the real opportunity cost of capital including risk) vanish in the U.S. banking industry. Positive economic profits arise from random "good luck," or from successful process innovations or product differentiation, and then erode as markets adjust. Negative profits arise from bad luck or strategic failures, but also tend to be corrected over time. A model is developed to infer expected speeds of profit adjustment from stock market and financial accounting ...
Journal Article
Changes in small business lending in the West
Journal Article
Using credit risk models for regulatory capital: issues and options
The authors describe the issues and options that would be associated with the development of regulatory minimum capital standards for credit risk based on banks' internal risk measurement models. Their goal is to provide a sense of the features that an internal-models (IM) approach to regulatory capital would likely incorporate, and to stimulate discussion among financial institutions, supervisors, and other interested parties about the many practical and conceptual issues involved in structuring a workable IM regulatory capital regime for credit risk. The authors focus on three main areas: ...
Conference Paper
What happens if banks are closed \"early\"?
Journal Article
Explaining differences in farm lending among banks
Do small, rural banks lend to farmers because they are small, or because they are rural? This paper combines a new measure of the extent of agricultural activity in banking markets with an appropriate statistical framework to examine causes of interbank variation in agricultural production loans. The results show that a bank's size and head office location both matter to some extent, but that the size of a bank's branches in agricultural areas is the single most important factor determining agricultural loan levels. Other variables, such as ownership structure and charter type, have no ...
Conference Paper
Beyond traditional credit risk: capital standards for market risks