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Working Paper
Market run-ups, market freezes, and leverage
The authors study trade between a buyer and a seller when both may have existing inventories of assets similar to those being traded. They analyze how these inventories affect trade, information dissemination, and price formation. The authors show that when the buyer's and seller's initial leverage is moderate, inventories increase price and trade volume, but when leverage is high, trade may become impossible (a "market freeze"). Their analysis predicts a pattern of trade in which prices and trade volume first increase, and then markets break down. The authors use their model to discuss ...
Journal Article
Legal uncertainty and contractual innovation
Although innovative contracts are important for economic growth, when firms face uncertainty as to whether contracts will be enforced, they may choose not to innovate. Legal uncertainty can arise if a judge interprets the terms of a contract in a way that is antithetical to the intentions of the parties to the contract. Or sometimes a judge may understand the contract but overrule it for other reasons. How does legal uncertainty affect firms? decisions to innovate? In ?Legal Uncertainty and Contractual Innovation,? Yaron Leitner explores issues related to legal uncertainty, particularly the ...
Working Paper
Market run-ups, market freezes, inventories, and leverage
This paper is superseded by Working Paper No. 13-14.> We study trade between a buyer and a seller who have existing inventories of assets similar to those being traded. We analyze how these inventories affect trade, information dissemination, and prices. We show that when traders? initial leverages are moderate, inventories increase price and trade volume (a market ?run-up?), but when leverages are high, trade is impossible (a market ?freeze?). Our analysis predicts a pattern of trade in which prices and volumes first increase, and then markets break down. Moreover, the presence of competing ...
Working Paper
Courts and contractual innovation: a preliminary analysis
The authors explore a model in which agents enter into a contract but are uncertain about how a judge will enforce it. The judge can consider a wide range of evidence, or instead, use a rule-based method of judgment that relies on limited information. The authors focus on the following tradeoff: Considering a wide range of evidence increases the likelihood of a correct ruling in the case at hand but undermines the formation of precedents that resolve legal uncertainty for subsequent agents. ; In a model of contractual innovation, they show that the use of evidence increases the likelihood of ...
Working Paper
A theory of an intermediary with nonexclusive contracting
This paper addresses large markets where agents cannot commit to sign exclusive contracts may induce agents to promise the same asset to multiple counterparties and subsequently default. Is how that in such markets an intermediary can increase welfare by simply setting limits on the number of contracts that agents can report to it voluntarily. In some cases, these limits must be nonbinding in equilibrium, and reported trades must not be made public. The theory shows why an exchange may be valuable even when markets are liquid. It also suggests why in some cases a regulator should not reveal ...
Journal Article
Nontraditional Insurance and Risks to Financial Stability
Do insurance companies pose a threat to financial stability? Historically, the answer has been no. But the insurance industry?s expansion into nontraditional activities has prompted reconsideration.
Working Paper
MODEL SECRECY AND STRESS TESTS
Conventional wisdom holds that the models used to stress test banks should be kept secret to prevent gaming. We show instead that secrecy can be suboptimal, because although it deters gaming, it may also deter socially desirable investment. When the regulator can choose the minimum standard for passing the test, we show that secrecy is suboptimal if the regulator is sufficiently uncertain regarding bank characteristics. When failing the bank is socially costly, then under some conditions, secrecy is suboptimal when the bank's private cost of failure is either sufficiently high or sufficiently ...
Working Paper
Inducing agents to report hidden trades: a theory of an intermediary
When contracts are unobserved, agents may have the incentive to promise the same asset to multiple counterparties and subsequently default. The author constructs an optimal mechanism that induces agents to reveal all their trades voluntarily. The mechanism allows agents to report every contract they enter, and it makes public the names of agents who have reached some prespecified position limit. In some cases, an agent's position limit must be higher than the number of contracts he enters in equilibrium. The mechanism has some features of a clearinghouse. ; Superseded by Working Paper 10/28R ...
Working Paper
Non-exclusive contracts, collateralized trade, and a theory of an exchange
Liquid markets where agents have limited capacity to sign exclusive contracts may permit agents to promise the same asset to multiple counterparties and subsequently default. I show that in such markets an exchange can arise as an intermediary whose only role is to set limits on the number of contracts that agents can report voluntarily. In some cases, these limits must be non-binding in equilibrium, and reported trades must not be made public. A (costly) alternative to an exchange is collateralized trade, and the gains from an exchange increase when agents have more intangible capital (e.g., ...
Working Paper
Market run-ups, market freezes, inventories, and leverage
This paper supersedes Working Paper No. 12-8.> We study trade between an informed seller and an uninformed buyer who have existing inventories of assets similar to those being traded. We show that these inventories may lead to prices that increase even absent changes in fundamentals (a .run-up.), but may also make trade impossible (a .freeze.) and hamper information dissemination. Competition may amplify the run-up by inducing buyers to enter loss-making trades at high prices to prevent a competitor from purchasing at a lower price and releasing bad news about inventory values. Inventories ...